GOLD TRIES TO HOLD $4,200 AS US CPI BECOMES NEXT KEY TEST
Gold extends its recovery from the recent two-month low of $4,067, trading around $4,205 and trying to hold above the $4,200 level as the new week begins.
The US Dollar bounced, though softer US Treasury yields countered the move, while oil prices fell sharply. Market attention is now shifting to Wednesday’s US CPI report, following the Nonfarm Payrolls disappointment and a decline in US consumer sentiment.
The inflation report is among the key economic releases ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting later this month. Markets are currently pricing an 83% probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged, up from 51% a month earlier.
According to TD Securities, September core CPI is expected to rise 0.20% month-on-month, while the annual core reading is forecast to remain at 2.4%. The bank also highlights upside risks from discretionary services and AI-related goods.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias below the 100-day SMA near $4,256 and the 50-day SMA around $4,338, while the 200-day SMA is near $4,529. The 14-day RSI at around 47 remains just below the neutral midpoint.
On the other hand, initial resistance is at $4,256, followed by $4,338 and $4,529. On the downside, the key structural support is around $4,002.
For market participants, the key factors remain Gold near $4,205, the $4,200 level, Wednesday’s US CPI, Fed rate expectations, Treasury yields, the $4,256–$4,529 resistance zone and $4,002 support, which may provide further context for Gold’s near-term direction.
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