NZD/USD REBOUNDS TOWARD 0.5615 AS US YIELDS EASE
NZD/USD rises toward 0.5615 in early Asian trading on Friday. The pair is supported by a softer US Dollar as US Treasury yields ease, while markets assess expectations for Federal Reserve and RBNZ policy.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell more than 4 basis points to 5.227%, after reaching its highest level since 2002 earlier this week. The 30-year Treasury yield declined more than 5 basis points to 5.602% after recently trading around a 24-year high.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said further rate hikes will likely be needed to bring inflation toward the Fed’s 2% target, but emphasized that there is flexibility over the timing of increases. Markets currently price a 17.7% probability of a Fed rate hike in October and an 83% probability of a hike in December.
On the New Zealand side, Westpac expects the RBNZ to hold the Official Cash Rate at 2.75% this month, followed by a 25-basis-point increase in December and two further increases in early 2027.
From a technical perspective, NZD/USD remains below the Bollinger middle band near 0.5665, with further resistance at the upper band at 0.5778 and the 100-day MA at 0.5795. The 14-day RSI is edging up toward 33, suggesting previous oversold conditions may be easing rather than signaling a bullish reversal.
On the other hand, initial resistance is located at 0.5665, followed by 0.5778 and 0.5795. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at 0.5555 offers immediate support, while a daily close below this level could expose the pair to further weakness.
For market participants, the key factors remain NZD/USD near 0.5615, US Treasury yields, October and December Fed rate expectations, RBNZ policy expectations, the 0.5665–0.5795 resistance area, 0.5555 support and the RSI near 33, which may provide further context for the pair’s near-term direction.
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