USD/JPY HOLDS ABOVE 158.00 AS BOJ HIKE EXPECTATIONS FADE
USD/JPY trades near 158.35 in early Asian trading, with the Japanese Yen under pressure as expectations for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike recede. Market attention is also turning to the FOMC Minutes due later on Wednesday.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will assess the likelihood and risks surrounding its economic and price outlook when considering the timing and pace of future rate increases. Market pricing currently points to a cautious policy path, with the probability of an October hike around 12%, while expectations are more concentrated on the December meeting.
On the US side, traders have reduced their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this month following softer-than-expected US jobs data. September NFP increased by 29,000, below the 90,000 market consensus, while the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.2%. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index stood at 137.91, remaining well above the neutral 100 threshold.
From a technical perspective, USD/JPY remains below the 100-day SMA at 159.55, keeping the near-term structure cautious. Initial resistance is located at 159.55, followed by the upper Bollinger Band near 159.80. On the downside, support is seen at the middle Bollinger Band at 156.90, followed by the lower Bollinger Band at around 154.00.
The next major focus is the FOMC Minutes, which may provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s views on inflation, interest rates and the future policy path.
For market participants, the key factors remain USD/JPY near 158.35, BoJ rate expectations, October and December policy pricing, US employment data, the FOMC Minutes, the 159.55–159.80 resistance zone and the 156.90–154.00 support area, which may provide further context for the pair’s near-term direction.
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