Global Economic Snapshot

• • China’s Q3 GDP grew by +1.1% q/q, surpassing expectations of +0.8%.
• • China September retail sales rose +3.0% YoY, slightly beating the forecast of +2.9%.
• • China’s industrial production grew +6.5% YoY, well ahead of the expected +5.0%.
• • Canada’s September producer price index climbed +5.5% y/y versus +4.0% previously.
• • Canada’s September CPI rose a modest 0.1% compared to a flat estimate.
• • US crude oil inventories declined by -0.961 million barrels, contrasting expectations for a 1.205 million build.
• • Australia’s flash manufacturing PMI for October fell to 49.7, down from 51.4 in September.
• • Japan’s September headline inflation held steady at 2.9% YoY, matching expectations and remaining above the BOJ’s 2% target.
• • Japan’s preliminary manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3 in October from 48.5 in September, marking a 19-month low.
• • France’s services PMI weakened to 47.1 versus 48.7 forecast.
• • Germany’s manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 49.6, beating the 49.5 estimate.
• • UK’s October services PMI moderated slightly to 51.1, above expectations of 51.0.

BOJ Policymaker Takata Signals Policy Shift

BOJ’s Takata noted Japan has broadly achieved the 2% inflation target and warned that second-round inflation effects may broadly emerge. While tariff concerns have eased and consumption is expected to moderate higher, he advised a cautious, phased adjustment in BOJ policy given market volatility risks, yen weakness and wary US tariff impacts.

Credit Agricole Bullish on Gold into 2026

Credit Agricole projects gold will remain supported through early 2026 driven by currency debasement fears, safe-haven demand amid faltering traditional assets like the yen, central bank diversification away from the dollar (notably China), and geopolitical risks including stagflation. While physical demand momentum may soften, the metal’s upside will increasingly hinge on real yields and US dollar.

Trump Escalates Tariff Threats on China

President Trump warned of raising tariffs on China to 155% starting November 1st unless a deal is reached, building on existing 55% tariffs. He mentioned upcoming discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea aiming for a mutually beneficial agreement.

Trump Shelves Putin Summit over Stalled Talks

Planned US-Russia summit has been called off after Putin linked ceasefire talks to Ukraine rearming, sparking negotiation collapse. Reports indicate a tense prior meeting between Trump and Zelensky, with the President now unwilling to meet Putin without tangible outcomes.

US Imposes Sanctions on Russian Oil Firms

Sanctions target Russian energy giants Lukoil and Rosneft, part of pressure to advance Ukraine cease-fire talks. Trump characterized ongoing US-Russia communications as good conversations but without progress and cited a canceled meeting with Putin over lack of results.

Putin Stresses Ongoing Engagement Despite Sanctions

President Putin downplayed US sanctions impact, calling them unfriendly and an attempt to pressure Russia without success. He underscored Russia’s significant role in global energy markets and warned any escalation into Russian territory would have serious consequences.

US Energy Secretary Wright Signals SPR Refill, Encourages Oil Buying

Energy Secretary Wright announced gradual replenishment of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), calling current oil prices a great time to buy. The US has committed to buying 1 million barrels monthly for delivery over December and January. Crude rose $5.85 to $61.80 recently.

BOFA Warns S&P 500 Vulnerable to ‘Forced Selling’

Bank of America cautioned that a popular “barbell” investment strategy exposing pension funds and endowments to illiquid private credit alongside liquid S&P 500 index funds could lead to forced selling in public equities if private credit faces losses. The opaque nature and liquidity mismatch in private lending raises contagion risks spilling into public markets.

US Inflation Cools Slightly Below Forecasts

The September Consumer Price Index showed headline inflation rising 3.0% year over year, just below expectations of 3.1%, providing modest relief for policymakers and markets. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also increased 3.0% year over year, compared with forecasts of 3.1%.

Economists suggest the softer core reading may reinforce the Federal Reserve’s case for continued gradual easing, particularly as tariff-related price pressures remain contained and inflation’s stickiness shows tentative signs of abating.

Corporate Earnings Updates

• • Netflix shares fell 10% post Q3 earnings, reacting to margin compression despite steady revenue ($11.51B vs. $11.51B expected EPS $5.87 vs $6.97 expected).
• • Tesla shares declined 5.6% after earnings, citing near-term sales and profit uncertainty despite record revenue ($28.095B vs. $26.70B expected EPS $0.50 vs. $0.56 expected).
• • Intel reported strong earnings with a more than 12% stock surge post-release ($13.65B revenue vs $13.14B expected, non-GAAP EPS $0.23 vs $0.01 expected).

Disclaimer

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