United States

• Durable goods +0.5% vs +0.3%
• Pending home sales +1.9% vs +0.5%
• Consumer confidence 88.7 vs 93.4
• Retail sales +0.2% vs +0.4%
• PPI +2.7% y/y, in line
• ADP employment: -13,500 vs -2,500

Japan

• Industrial production +1.5% y/y vs -0.5%
• Retail sales +1.7% y/y vs +0.8%
• Tokyo core CPI +2.8% vs +2.7%

Australia

• CPI +3.8% y/y vs +3.6%

New Zealand

• RBNZ cuts OCR by 25 bps

Japan inches closer to a BOJ rate hike

Tokyo core CPI held at 2.8% in November, driven mainly by food price increases. Service-sector inflation remains modest at 1.5%, but overall price momentum suggests Japan is approaching its next rate hike, possibly in December or early 2026. Industrial production rose slightly, though a slowdown is expected, while the yen’s weakness adds pressure to act preemptively.

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts Summary

The ECB plans to keep rates steady. Policymakers view inflation risks as balanced but still uncertain and prefer to wait for more data before adjusting policy. The accounts note that temporary fluctuations shouldn’t trigger policy changes, and current conditions allow a steady approach.

Fitch flags Japan’s fiscal risk

Japan’s new stimulus could raise debt if spending continues, though near-term impact is limited. Fitch expects debt/GDP to fall gradually but notes medium-term vulnerabilities due to high debt and slow growth.

Deutsche Bank lifts gold forecast

Gold is expected to reach US$4,450/oz in 2026, up from US$4,000. Wider trading ranges reflect strong structural demand, steady investor flows, and central bank buying.

HSBC sees OpenAI unprofitable until 2030

OpenAI may generate over US$213B in revenue by 2030, but infrastructure costs could reach US$792B, with compute commitments swelling to US$1.4T by 2033. Analysts say growth faces heavy capital demands and intense competition.

JPMorgan now expects Fed cut in December

Recent Fed comments, particularly from New York Fed President John Williams, suggest near-term easing. JPM sees quarter-point cuts in both December and January, matching market expectations.

BofA cautious on U.S. equities

The bank expects modest S&P 500 gains (7,100) with a wide trading range (5,500–8,500). Valuations remain high, and liquidity support is easing. Preference is for capex-driven and industrial sectors over consumer-focused names. AI gains may be slower due to costs and power constraints.

Australia inflation jumps, AUD strengthens

October CPI accelerated to 3.8% y/y, above forecasts. Markets reacted sharply: AUD +0.5% to US$0.6502, three-year yields +11bps to 3.855%. Rate-cut expectations for May 2026 dropped from 40% to 8%, while hike probability by late 2025 rose to 32%.

RBNZ ends easing cycle

OCR cut to 2.25%, with board signaling no further cuts for now. Early recovery signs and inflation risks suggest rates will remain steady for the next year. Markets reacted immediately: NZD +1%, two-year swaps spiked as further cuts were repriced.

Trump on Ukraine-Russia talks

Progress is being made with European security involvement. Meetings with Moscow are planned, but no firm deal timeline has been set.

Alphabet rises, Nvidia slips — AI competition heats up

Alphabet approaches a US$4T valuation, helped by AI chip momentum. Nvidia continues to slide as Meta explores Google chips, highlighting growing rivalry in AI infrastructure.

Tesla hit with robotics patent lawsuit

Perrone Robotics claims Tesla used protected automation tech across Autopilot models since 2017 and seeks compensation after prior approaches failed.