Weekly Market Recap

From surprise rate cuts to political tensions shaking the markets, this week delivered no shortage of headlines. Here’s a quick yet insightful recap of the key global developments that shaped the financial world.

Global Economic Snapshot

• China: April unemployment dropped to 5.1% (est. 5.2%), retail sales lagged at +5.1% y/y (est. 6.0%), but industrial output beat at +6.1% y/y. Benchmark lending rate cut to 3.50%.
• United States: Jobless claims at 227K (vs. 230K est.) show labor market resilience.
• United Kingdom: CPI rose to 3.5% y/y (est. 3.3%), supporting continued monetary tightening.
• Germany: PPI declined -0.6% m/m (est. -0.3%), PMI at 48.8 reflects industrial weakness.
• Australia: RBA cut rates 25bps to 3.85% amid slowdown and inflation pressure.
• Japan: May manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0; April core CPI surged to 3.5% y/y.

U.S. Credit Outlook Downgraded by Moody’s

Moody’s revised its U.S. credit outlook to negative due to high federal debt, interest costs, and political dysfunction—raising concerns over long-term fiscal stability.

Morgan Stanley Pushes Back Fed Cut Timeline

The firm now forecasts the first Fed rate cut in September due to persistent inflation and economic strength—postponing earlier June projections.

China Slams U.S. Chip Export Curbs

Beijing accused Washington of “unilateral bullying” over chip controls, warning of retaliation and urging adherence to prior trade commitments.

Trump-Putin Call Rekindles Ceasefire Hopes

Trump announced promising ceasefire talks with Russia after a phone call with President Putin, who signaled optimism about reaching a truce agreement.

Trump’s Tax Bill Shakes Markets

A narrowly passed U.S. House bill (215–214) sparked inflation and deficit concerns, causing Treasury yields to rise amid debt sustainability fears.

Walmart to Cut 1,500 Jobs Amid Tariff Tensions

In response to tariff-driven cost increases, Walmart will lay off 1,500 workers. President Trump urged the company to absorb costs rather than raise prices.

Japan Faces Debt Crisis Warning

PM Ishiba compared Japan’s fiscal situation to Greece’s 2010 debt crisis. U.S. auto tariffs and rising bond yields (40-year yield hit 3.58%) have intensified concerns.

Gold Breakout Confirms Bullish Momentum

Gold broke out of a two-week consolidation above the $3,100 support zone, targeting the $3,500 resistance level. Momentum remains with the bulls.

Volatility Surges: VIX Breaks Higher

The VIX jumped 9% off recent lows, reversing from a major support area. Rising volatility suggests investor complacency is fading, often preceding equity turbulence.

NYSE Composite: Breakdown Risk Intensifies

The NYSE Composite is deteriorating beneath trend support. If current levels break, it could spark aggressive equity selling. Watch for increased downside volatility.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.