United States

• Existing home sales: 4.10M (exp 4.08M)
• Initial jobless claims: 220K (exp 230K)
• September Non-Farm Payrolls: +119K (exp +50K)
• Unemployment rate: 4.4% (exp 4.3%, prior 4.3%)
• Trade balance: -$59.6B (exp -$61.0B)

United Kingdom

• Retail sales fell 1.1% m/m (exp 0.0%)
• CPI rose 3.6% y/y, in line with expectations

Eurozone

• CPI: +2.1% y/y (in line)

Germany

• PPI: +0.1% m/m (exp 0.0%)

Japan

• Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 48.8 (prior 48.2)
• Core CPI: 3.0% y/y (exp 3.0%, prior 2.9%)

FOMC Minutes: Rates Likely Steady

The FOMC minutes indicate broad consensus that rates are likely to stay unchanged through year-end, with most participants expecting gradual cuts over time as policy moves toward neutral. A few officials noted a potential December cut, but rising risks to employment and uneven consumer spending kept the committee cautious. Inflation remains “somewhat elevated,” with upside risks still present, and tariffs are expected to add price pressure through 2025–26. Nearly all members supported ending quantitative tightening on December 1 as reserves reached ample levels. Some also highlighted that stretched asset valuations could amplify the impact of any sharp market correction.

Fed Officials Signal Hesitation Ahead of December

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee pushed back against another rapid cut, saying inflation hasn’t convincingly eased and data gaps from the shutdown add uncertainty. Despite supporting earlier cuts, he warned against front-loading easing before the recent price pickup is better understood.

Other policymakers echoed similar caution. Governor Jefferson said it’s unclear how much data will be available before the December 10 meeting and stressed the need to move slowly as policy nears neutral. Fed Governor Hammack warned that cutting now risks fueling financial imbalances and prolonging inflation.

BOJ Path to a December Hike Strengthens

A Reuters poll shows a slim majority of economists expecting the BOJ to raise rates to 0.75% at the December meeting. The yen’s renewed slide touching a 10-month low against the dollar has intensified concerns over imported inflation. All surveyed economists expect rates to reach 0.75% by the end of Q1 2026.

White House Pushes Back on Chip Export Restrictions

The White House is urging Congress to block a proposal that would impose tighter limits on exports of advanced AI chips to China. Officials warn the plan could damage U.S. tech leadership by driving overseas buyers toward rival suppliers and slowing innovation at home. Supporters argue the measure would bolster national-security controls, but the administration says the restrictions are overly blunt and risk harming the very industry they aim to protect.

Morgan Stanley Drops Call for December Cut

Following the stronger-than-expected September payrolls print, Morgan Stanley no longer expects the Fed to cut in December. The bank says the rebound in hiring suggests labour-market cooling was overstated and doesn’t warrant imminent easing.

Barclays Flags Risk of a Sharp Oil Spike

Barclays cautions that Brent could climb above $85 if Russian exports fall materially, arguing the market underestimates the impact of supply-side shocks. With inventories thin, any disruption to Russian flows could trigger a fast squeeze and add fresh inflation pressure.

Deutsche Bank: Hawkish Fed Behind Multi-Asset Pullback

Deutsche Bank points to two drivers behind the broad selloff since mid-October: The Fed’s hawkish turn and the market’s extended run heading into late October. Bitcoin has dropped 24% from its peak, gold is down 6%, and the S&P 500 has lost upward momentum as Treasury yields push higher. Concerns over fiscal sustainability have added to the strain.

Trump Approval Rating Slips

A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows President Trump’s approval rating at 38%, his lowest since returning to office. Only 26% approve of his handling of living-cost pressures, and 70% believe the government is withholding information related to the Epstein case.