This week brings important economic data from around the world that could move markets. China’s trade balance will show how external demand is holding up. In the US, inflation reports will be closely watched for clues on when the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates. The European Central Bank is expected to keep rates steady, while the UK’s GDP numbers will show if the economy is still growing or starting to slow.

Monday, September 8

Trade Balance (China)

China’s trade balance for August 2025 showed a surplus of USD 102.33 billion, surpassing market expectations and rising from July’s figure of USD 98.24 billion. The overall trade surplus expanded primarily because imports grew more slowly than exports. Export growth slowed significantly to 4.4%, the slowest pace since the start of the year, down from July’s 7.2% gain.

Tuesday, September 9

Markets face a quiet day on the calendar, with no major data due. This offers investors a chance to digest last week’s releases and position ahead of Thursday’s key U.S. inflation print.

Wednesday, September 10

US Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consensus points to a 3.3% (YoY) increase and a 0.3% (MoM) rise, signaling persistent but moderating inflation pressures. Recent PPI reports have come in stronger than expected, especially in services raising questions over the impact of tariffs and the durability of inflation trends. While no significant shift is expected in August, an upside surprise could prompt the Federal Reserve to tread more cautiously on rate-cut plans.

Thursday, September 11

ECB Interest Rate Decision

The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged. A Reuters survey showed 66 out of 69 economists anticipate no policy move. Major banks, including Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas, have updated their forecasts to reflect no further cuts in 2025. BNP even suggests the next adjustment could be a hike, potentially in late 2026.

US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Economists forecast headline CPI to rise 2.8% (YoY) and 0.3% (MoM), in line with recent moderate inflation trends. Core CPI is expected to hold around 2.9% - 3.1%, underscoring sticky services inflation.

Impact on Dollar and Equities

A hotter print would likely strengthen the dollar as markets trim Fed cut expectations, while equities particularly tech could retreat on higher yields. A softer or in-line reading would relieve pressure, allowing stocks to climb and the dollar to ease lower as bets on a September Fed cut remain intact.

Friday, September 12

UK GDP

After June’s solid 0.4% expansion, growth is expected to slow in July. The Bank of England projects 0.3% growth in Q3, pointing to an economy that is stable but lacking momentum. A weaker monthly print would reinforce concerns that June’s bounce was short-lived and that the recovery remains fragile.

Market Outlook

Meta

Meta has broken out to an all-time high and is currently retesting the breakout level near $740. While the overall picture suggests a bullish trend, recent price action has lacked clear direction. A decisive move below $740 would indicate waning momentum, signaling a potential shift. However, as long as the stock holds above this level and consolidates sideways, the bullish setup remains intact.

Tesla

On the daily timeframe, Tesla appears to be forming a bear flag pattern. A break below the marked trendline would confirm this bearish setup. Conversely, a breakout above the key horizontal resistance at $380 would invalidate the pattern, opening the door for renewed upside. Notably, the stock has been consolidating in a range between $280 and $360 for the past three months. A decisive break out of this range, either above or below, will likely provide strong directional momentum.

EUR/USD

The pair has been making higher highs since the rally began in April, illustrating a textbook example of trendline support in action. Immediate support lies around the 1.16 level, and a break below this would signal a potential shift in momentum. On the upside, resistance is firmly established near 1.1830, which remains the key level to watch for a bullish breakout. Maintaining above the support line will likely keep the bullish trend intact, while a breach below 1.16 could open the door for downside pressure.

Disclaimer

The information in this article is for general information only and does not represent financial or investment advice. Markets are unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions, please do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on this content.