Monday, July 7

The week kicks off on a subdued note, with no major data releases scheduled. Market attention will likely drift toward geopolitical developments, particularly around tariff negotiations. Any updates on deadlines or surprise breakthroughs could quickly shift market sentiment.

Tuesday, July 8

RBA Interest Rate Decision

Markets widely expect the RBA to deliver a 25 bp rate cut, bringing the cash rate down to 3.60%, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Australia's major banks are aligned in this view, with further easing anticipated later this year.

That said, the tone of the statement will be key. There's a slim possibility of a hawkish tilt, with policymakers potentially warning against excessive cuts given sticky inflation and a tight labor market, as flagged by analysts at Bank of America and Citi.

Wednesday, July 9

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

The RBNZ is expected to hold rates steady at 3.25%, though recent commentary suggests the central bank may lean more cautious going forward. Governor Hawkesby has emphasized uncertainty in the outlook, and May’s rate cut was not unanimous, highlighting internal division.

While rate projections hint at a decline to 2.85% by early 2026, the tone of Wednesday’s statement could shape expectations for the remainder of the year.

FOMC Minutes

The Fed kept rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% in June, but opinions within the committee were divided. Some members favored starting cuts soon, citing easing inflation, while others called for patience amid lingering global risks.

The minutes will offer deeper insight into this debate, particularly around the Fed’s inflation outlook and growth projections, both of which showed subtle but telling adjustments last month. Markets will be parsing every word for signs of whether a July rate cut remains on the table.

Thursday, July 10

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Jobless claims continue to reflect a gradual cooling in the labor market. Initial claims remain relatively low, but a steady rise in continuing claims suggests it's taking longer for workers to find new jobs.

The four-week average stands at 242,000, slightly above levels from a year ago. While not yet a red flag, analysts including those at Wells Fargo warn that a sharp jump in claims could point to deeper labor market stress as trade headwinds weigh on business activity.

Friday, July 11

French CPI

France’s inflation print is expected to show a mild uptick in June, with annual CPI rising to 0.9%, up from 0.7% in May. On a monthly basis, prices are forecast to rise 0.3%, reversing May’s small decline.

This modest rebound may suggest that disinflation has temporarily stalled, especially in services and housing. A hotter-than-expected reading could dampen expectations for aggressive ECB rate cuts, while a softer print may reinforce the easing bias heading into the second half of the year.

Technical Outlook

Apple

The stock is currently retesting its April highs, a key resistance level that previously acted as support for nearly six months before the breakdown. This zone now serves as a pivotal barrier. For the bullish trend to resume, price action needs to break and hold above 226. Until that level is cleared, the bears maintain the upper hand, and the risk of another pullback remains elevated.

Netflix

A potential rising wedge pattern appears to be forming on the daily chart, which if confirmed could suggest a shift in momentum. A move below the 1270 level may open the door to further downside, especially if accompanied by broader weakness. The MACD also shows signs of a possible bearish crossover, adding to the cautious undertone. On the flip side, a sustained move back above 1300, along with a positive weekly closing could help reestablish upward bias.

AMD

Following a period of heavy selling, the stock appears to have stabilized, with signs of a potential bottom forming. An inverted head and shoulders pattern has emerged just ahead of the recent move higher, hinting at a possible trend reversal. The breakout above the neckline at 116 now serves as a key support level to watch. Additionally, the evenly spaced higher lows suggest growing stability in price action, indicating that the worst may be behind the stock.