A busy week for global markets as investors track a mix of central bank meetings and U.S. data releases, though the government shutdown continues to cloud visibility. With official statistics delayed, private-sector indicators like the ISM surveys and ADP employment data will take on added importance in shaping expectations around growth and policy.

Monday, November 3

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI

With federal data releases suspended due to the shutdown, the ISM Manufacturing PMI carries extra weight this week. Markets expect a modest uptick to 49.4 from 49.1, still marking contraction territory.

Over the past year, the index has consistently stayed below 50, showing persistent weakness in factory activity. Disappointments typically dampen equity sentiment, while the occasional upside surprise has offered only short-lived relief. A stronger print could provide a brief lift for the dollar and risk assets, but the broader trend remains soft.

Tuesday, November 4

RBA Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep the Cash Rate at 3.60%, with market pricing assigning more than a 90% chance of a hold. Inflation has eased from its 2022 highs but remains uneven, while recent employment data have come in softer than expected.

Governor Bullock has signaled that future moves remain data dependent. Firmer CPI readings in Q3 have led major banks, including CBA and Goldman Sachs, to withdraw calls for rate cuts, suggesting the RBA is comfortable staying on pause for now.

Wednesday, November 5

ISM Services PMI & ADP Employment

The ISM Services PMI is forecasted at 50.8, up slightly from 50.0 in September, suggesting the sector continues to expand modestly. Activity and new orders remain subdued, but price pressures have been ticking higher, keeping inflation in focus.

With the Labor Department shut, the official non-farm payrolls report will not be published this week. In its absence, the ADP employment data will serve as the key gauge of labor market health. ADP has also begun releasing weekly employment estimates, the latest of which showed 14,250 new jobs through mid-October — offering a narrow but useful snapshot of job momentum.

Thursday, November 6

Bank of England Rate Decision

The Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 4.0%, with a likely 6-3 vote split. Inflation has moderated but remains nearly double the Bank’s 2% target, while wage growth continues to run hot. The MPC is expected to maintain its cautious stance, preferring to keep policy tight for longer rather than risk a premature pivot.

Friday, November 7

Canada Unemployment Rate

Canada’s jobs report will be watched for signs of whether the recent rate cuts from the Bank of Canada are starting to stabilize the labor market. The central bank recently signaled that policy is about right, acknowledging the limits of monetary easing amid slowing growth and persistent trade frictions. Unless unemployment moves sharply higher, this print is unlikely to alter near-term policy expectations.

U.S. Government Shutdown – A Prolonged Test for Washington

The U.S. government shutdown has now entered record territory, with the stalemate between Democrats and Republicans showing little sign of resolution. The shutdown has frozen the release of key economic data, delayed benefits for millions, and left thousands of federal employees without pay.

President Donald Trump reiterated over the weekend that he won’t be extorted by Democrats pressing for negotiations tied to Affordable Care Act subsidies. Senate Democrats, meanwhile, have blocked 13 attempts to reopen the government, insisting that talks resume before any spending bill is passed.

While markets have been relatively calm so far, the extended shutdown raises the risk of spillovers into sentiment and consumption. The lack of official data has already complicated policymaking and market forecasting. If the impasse drags further, it could start weighing on confidence both in Washington’s ability to govern and in the resilience of the broader economy.

---