Monday, December 29

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

U.S. crude oil inventory data is scheduled for release today, with the timing shifted to Monday due to the Christmas holiday.

• Consensus forecast modest draw of -2 million barrels, following recent weekly declines of 1.3–1.8 million barrels.
• Total commercial stocks remain about 4% below the five-year seasonal average.
• Private API data have occasionally signaled larger draws than EIA reports, creating “whisper” expectations that can add short-term volatility around the release.

Investors will be looking closely for any surprises that could influence oil prices and broader energy markets.

Tuesday, December 30

FOMC Meeting Minutes

The minutes will recap the December meeting, where the Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75%, noting a slowing economy with inflation still above target.

Key takeaways expected from the minutes:

• Committee divisions: differing views on inflation risks vs. labor-market weakness.
• Rate cut framing: largely as risk management rather than a start of aggressive easing.
• Caution on future cuts: most members emphasizing data dependence.
• Data uncertainty: ongoing concern over economic data quality keeps decisions finely balanced.

This release is unlikely to shift the market narrative but will be scrutinized for tone and subtle signals on the Fed’s patience heading into 2026.

Wednesday, December 31

China Manufacturing PMI

China’s manufacturing sector remains in contraction, with November’s PMI at 49.2. Markets are modelling at 49.4 for December.

• Below 50: signals continued contraction, reflecting weak domestic demand, declining new orders, and lower raw material inventories.
• Impact on commodities:
   A stronger-than-expected print moving toward 50 could support base metals (copper, iron ore, aluminum), reflecting higher raw material demand.

   A weaker print would deepen contraction and weigh on metals and related commodities.

Thursday, January 1 – Markets Closed

Markets remain closed in observance of New Year’s Day.

Friday, January 2

German Manufacturing PMI

German manufacturing remains below the expansion threshold, with December estimates around 47.7–48.2, reflecting ongoing contraction.

• Drivers: weak export orders and soft industrial activity.
• Impact on the DAX:
   A weaker-than-expected PMI could weigh on industrial and export-heavy stocks, reinforcing broader growth concerns.

   A positive surprise is possible but unlikely, and any rally would probably be short-lived.

How markets end the year 2025 will help set the tone for the first week and potentially the first quarter of 2026, with investor sentiment, liquidity, and macro signals all playing a critical role.

Crude Oil

Crude has faced consistent pressure throughout the year, but short-term charts show higher lows forming, while longer-term frames display a bullish divergence. The $55 level remains a key pivot — a break below it could push oil into uncharted territory next year.

In the near term, bulls will be targeting a weekly close above $60 to regain momentum.

Silver

The broader uptrend remains intact, but short-term candlestick patterns suggest caution in the near term. Elevated volatility indicates that price may continue to trade within a range of $68–$84 for now.