Market Outlook: April 28 – May 2, 2025

As we step into a new trading week, market participants brace for a series of key economic releases and corporate earnings that could shape sentiment across global financial markets. Here's a detailed look at what to expect from April 28 to May 2, 2025.

Monday, April 28

The week begins quietly on the economic release front. However, as the week progresses, key U.S. data points are expected to drive market sentiment.

Tuesday, April 29 – US Goods Trade Balance

Analysts anticipate a widening trade deficit. Before the implementation of the latest tariffs, businesses rushed to import goods, causing a temporary surge. Following the tariff enactment, imports declined sharply, with container shipments from China falling by 45% and airfreight volumes dropping by 30%. The data will likely reflect both the pre-tariff buying frenzy and the early impacts of declining trade activity.

Wednesday, April 30

Chinese Manufacturing PMI: China’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI data will offer critical insights. Last month’s PMI barely stayed above the 50.0 mark. A weaker print could heighten calls for stimulus.

US GDP: Consensus forecasts for U.S. GDP growth have been revised downward after tariffs. The Atlanta Fed predicts a contraction of -2.5% for Q1 2025, with supply chain disruptions and rising prices increasing recession risks.

US Core PCE: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is expected to show a 0.1% MoM increase and a YoY decrease to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021.

Thursday, May 1

BOJ Interest Rate Decision: The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates at 0.5%, despite rising inflation and global uncertainties driven by tariffs.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI: The PMI is likely to remain below 50.0, signaling contraction amid tariff impacts and weakening demand.

Friday, May 2

US Nonfarm Payrolls: Job growth is projected to slow, with 125,000–130,000 new jobs expected versus 228,000 in March. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 4.2%.

Earnings Spotlight

Investor attention will center on earnings from tech giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, alongside sector leaders like Visa, Mastercard, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca.

Strong tech results could cushion markets against negative macroeconomic surprises, while disappointing numbers could trigger renewed selling pressure.

Technical Outlook

Major indices like the S&P 500 and DAX have retraced about 50% of their recent declines. Technical signals remain cautious, suggesting current gains could still be a bear market rally rather than a sustainable recovery. Any sharp reversals should be approached with caution.

As critical economic data and heavyweight earnings unfold, markets face a defining week that could shape trading through May and beyond.

Final Note

Traders and investors should stay alert and flexible. Whether macroeconomic surprises or corporate earnings dominate headlines, adaptability and caution will be key to navigating the days ahead.

Disclaimer:
This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.