There hasn’t been a quiet weekend in months, and this one was no exception. Policy uncertainty remains the dominant driver for global markets.

The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruled that the President lacks authority under IEEPA to impose certain tariffs unilaterally, a decision that immediately injected fresh legal and political friction into trade policy. Markets barely had time to process the ruling before former President Donald Trump responded by signaling plans to raise global tariffs to 15% from 10%, reinforcing the message that trade tensions are far from resolved.

The global reaction was swift. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde cautioned that renewed US tariff measures risk reopening fault lines in global trade just as supply chains were stabilizing. Meanwhile, China urged Washington to roll back unilateral tariff actions, underscoring the fragile state of diplomatic and economic relations.

Monday, February 23

US Factory Orders

U.S. factory orders are expected to show a modest month-on-month contraction, suggesting momentum in the goods sector may be cooling. Factory orders provide a key glimpse into demand for manufactured goods and future business investment. A weaker reading would reinforce recent data showing slowing activity and could temper expectations for further monetary tightening, while a stronger print could signal resilience in business investment. Softer-than-expected orders would likely weigh on the dollar, reflecting slower growth and less upside pressure on the Fed’s policy path.

Tuesday, February 24

US Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence after January’s sharp drop to 84.5, the lowest in over a decade, is expected to recover slightly to 87.6. While a modest rebound would indicate stabilization, households remain cautious amid ongoing inflation pressures and economic uncertainty. Consumer confidence impacts retail spending, services demand, and big-ticket purchases like autos and homes. A stronger reading could ease market fears and support risk assets, while a disappointment would reinforce the narrative of fragile, consumer-driven growth.

Wednesday, February 25

Australian CPI

Australia releases its January CPI, expected to show inflation remaining elevated in the high 3% range. Recent prints have consistently been above the RBA’s 2–3% target, prompting the central bank to raise the cash rate to 3.85% earlier this month. If inflation remains high, it strengthens the case for further tightening, particularly if the labor market remains robust. Even a softer result will need to be interpreted in the context of persistent core inflation, making this release a key gauge of the RBA’s next moves.

Earnings Highlight: NVDA reports earnings after market close, adding a potential spike in market volatility midweek.

Thursday, February 26

Hillary Clinton Testimony

Hillary Clinton is scheduled to testify as part of the broader investigation into the federal government’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell cases. While not directly market-moving, political headlines continue to add uncertainty

Friday, February 27

US Core PPI & Bill Clinton Testimony

January Core PPI is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.7% previously, with headline PPI also projected at 0.3%. Core PPI provides an early signal of underlying inflation before it reaches consumers. Any upside surprise would indicate that price pressures remain persistent, reinforcing the Fed’s recent decision to hold rates steady and reducing expectations for near-term easing.

In addition, Bill Clinton is scheduled to testify as part of the broader investigation into the federal government’s handling of the Epstein and Maxwell cases. While political in nature, this adds another layer of market uncertainty to an already data-heavy day.