This week kicks off with key manufacturing PMI releases from Germany, the UK, and the US that will set the tone for global industrial activity amid lingering growth concerns. Midweek sees the US housing sector in focus with new home sales data, followed by the critical GDP release expected to signal sustained US economic growth. By week’s end, inflation readings from Tokyo and the US Core PCE gauge will offer crucial clues on price pressures and central bank policy stances in Asia and the US.

Monday, September 22

Five FOMC members, including Williams, Musalem, Miran, Barkin, and Hammack, are scheduled to speak today. Markets will look for cues on recent rate cuts and signals on the timing and scope of the Fed’s next policy moves.

Tuesday, September 23

Manufacturing PMIs

• • Germany: Forecast near 50, up from August’s 49.8. A reading above 50 would mark the first expansion in months, potentially easing concerns over export demand and energy costs.
• • UK: Expected around 47.2, consistent with August, keeping the sector in contraction amid continued cost pressure. Minimal impact on BoE policy is expected.
• • US: Forecast 51.8, down from 53.0 but still expansionary. Markets will focus on price pressures and new orders; stronger PMI could delay Fed easing, while softness may support it.

Wednesday, September 24

US New Home Sales

August sales are expected to decline slightly by 0.6% month-over-month to roughly 651,000 units. Continued weakness would highlight affordability constraints affecting construction and consumer sentiment, while any upside surprise could bolster confidence in housing’s economic contribution.

Thursday, September 25

US GDP

Q3 GDP growth is forecast at 3.3%, matching the revised Q2 figure. While some forecasters flag slowing underlying growth excluding volatile trade and inventories, a solid GDP print would affirm ongoing economic momentum, influencing Fed policy deliberations.

US Goods Trade Balance

July’s goods trade deficit stood at $103.6 billion, with forecasts indicating a slight narrowing to a range of $90-$100 billion, driven by slower imports or modest export gains.

Friday, September 26

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

The consensus expects Tokyo’s core CPI to edge up to 2.8%, modestly higher than August’s 2.5% and below the July peak of 2.9%. Inflation remains sustained above the BoJ’s 2% target, underpinning speculation of cautious tightening amid persistent imported cost pressures and a tight labor market.

US Core PCE Inflation

Core PCE inflation is expected to remain stable at 2.9% YoY, indicating persistent inflationary pressures aligned with the Fed’s target. This release will be key in shaping expectations for future interest rate adjustments.

Market Outlook

UK 100

The index has formed a double top pattern, a classic bearish formation. Current price action appears to be following the expected trajectory of the pattern. A breach above 9350 would invalidate the setup, while a break below 9100 could accelerate selling pressure and confirm the bearish continuation.

Nvidia

The steep uptrend from April appears to have weakened, with a clear break of the uptrend now visible. Adding to the bearish case, a downward-sloping trend line is forming. Key support levels lie around 165, as highlighted on the charts; a breach of these levels could accelerate selling pressure. Conversely, any move to new highs from here would invalidate the negative outlook.

EUR/USD

What initially appeared to be a breakout has proven to be a fakeout. The move was followed by three days of selling, and the zone around 1.1830 now re-emerges as a key resistance area.

Disclaimer

The information in this article is for general information only and does not represent financial or investment advice. Markets are unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions, please do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on this content.