Monday, 17 November

Canada CPI

The consensus for CPI is expected at 2.8% YoY and 0.2% MoM. The report will be a key driver for the Canadian dollar and interest rate expectations, as investors gauge whether inflation is moving sustainably toward the Bank of Canada’s target. Persistent core readings suggest a cautious approach to further rate cuts, keeping markets attentive to BoC signals.

Tuesday, 18 November

RBA Meeting Minutes

The RBA meeting minutes to be released are expected to highlight a unanimous decision to hold the cash rate steady at 3.60%, reflecting a cautious, data-dependent approach. Inflation has shown some pickup after falling from 2022 highs, with the trimmed mean expected to rise to 3.2% in early 2026. The key focus will be whether the board sees the rise in underlying inflation as temporary or a sign of stickier pressures coming from wages, housing, energy and capacity constraints. Markets will look for clues on the timing of any future rate cuts, though the tone is likely to stay cautious.

US Factory Orders

Economists expect a slight rebound, supported by stabilizing supply chains and modest gains in core capital goods, though aircraft and parts volatility (tied to Boeing issues) could cap upside. Consensus from sources like Reuters forecast a slight decrease in MoM or near flat reading in factory orders (-0.3). A print near or above expectations could boost USD and equities (S&P 500 futures), signaling resilience. Deeper contraction might heighten recession fears, pressuring Treasuries (10Y yield 4.10%)

Wednesday, 19 November

UK & Eurozone CPI

UK CPI is forecasted at 3.6%, slightly below recent 3.8% levels. Eurozone inflation is expected to be near 2.1%, inching toward the ECB’s 2% target. These readings will influence BeE and ECB policy outlooks: softer inflation may support easing, while higher prints could prompt caution.

FOMC Meeting Minutes

The FOMC minutes will provide detailed insight into the Committee’s recent deliberations. Markets will watch for guidance on the pace and timing of future rate cuts, with particular focus on any dissent among members. Inflation persistence, wage pressures, and labor market conditions will be key topics, as the Fed balances economic growth against price stability. The minutes may also touch on the balance sheet and other policy tools. The minutes are expected to reflect cautious optimism, acknowledging improvements in economic data but signaling that further easing is not guaranteed, supporting a wait and see approach.

Thursday, 20 November

US Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment rate

The report will very much be a lagging data point, all things considered. However, it's at least a start in trying to piece back together the picture after the longest US government shutdown in history. As a reminder, this will be the report for the September month. Before we got to the government shutdown, analyst forecasts point to the September payrolls as being estimated at 60k. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is estimated to hold steady at 4.3%.

Friday, 21 November

Manufacturing PMI – German, UK and US

Manufacturing PMI data for Germany, the UK, and the US will be released. Germany’s PMI is expected around 49.8, marginally below the 50 point expansion threshold, indicating near stagnation in the sector. UK Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 49.3, suggesting continued mild contraction, while US manufacturing PMI is expected to be slightly above the previous 52.5 level, pointing to moderate expansion. Readings above 50 indicate growth, while below 50 signals contraction. Stronger than expected data could support risk appetite, influence currency strength, whereas weaker readings may weigh on equity sentiment and signal slower economic momentum globally.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500

The index has recorded back to back negative weekly closing, accompanied by a bearish RSI divergence on the weekly chart and a series of lower highs on the daily timeframe. The $6,550 level is a critical inflection point — a breach here would amplify bearish sentiment and increase the risk of further downside.

Key Levels

Support: 6,630 / 6,550
Resistance: 6,780 / 6,850

Crude Oil

A potential double bottom is forming on the weekly chart. The rebound after hitting the lows has shown encouraging signs for bulls. The $63 level is a key inflection point, a decisive break above it would reinforce the bullish case significantly.

Key Levels

Support: 58.70 / 57
Resistance: 63 / 67

Silver

A potential double top took shape last week as the metal attempted to breach its record high but faced aggressive selling, signaling a possible trend reversal. Defending the neckline around $45 is crucial for bulls to maintain control.

Key Levels

Support: 48 / 45
Resistance: 51.90 / 53.50

Disclaimer

The information in this article is for general information only and does not represent financial or investment advice. Markets are unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions, please do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on this content.