Monday, May 19 – Eurozone CPI

Eurozone inflation is expected to remain steady at 2.2% YoY. Core inflation and wage pressures continue to ease, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will begin cutting interest rates at its June 5 meeting.

Markets are pricing in a 90% probability of a 25bps rate cut, lowering the deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.00%.

Tuesday, May 20 – Australia Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 3.85%. However, the move is not guaranteed. The RBA has emphasized that decisions remain data-dependent, with continued economic uncertainty and inflation targeting guiding policy.

Wednesday, May 21 – UK CPI

UK CPI is projected to rise from 2.6% to 3.3%, driven by energy and regulatory price adjustments. This will be a key release ahead of the BoE's June 19 meeting.

With a recent 25bps rate cut to 4.25% (vote split 5–4), a stronger CPI could prompt a pause in further easing. BoE officials, including Chief Economist Huw Pill, have suggested that inflation risks may warrant prolonged tight policy.

Thursday, May 22 – Global PMIs

• Germany: Expected to rise to 48.8 – still contractionary but showing recovery.
• Eurozone: Forecasted at 49.3 – highest since mid-2022.
• UK: Projected at 46.2 – remains in contraction amid weak output and high costs.
• US: Estimated to fall to 49.9 – potentially tipping into contraction.

Global PMIs continue to hover below the 50 threshold, indicating ongoing headwinds in manufacturing. Slight stabilization is visible, but cost and demand pressures persist.

Friday, May 23 – Japan National Core CPI

Japan’s Core CPI is expected to rise to 3.5% YoY from 3.2%, driven by food prices and reduced utility subsidies. While this supports the case for additional BoJ tightening, growth concerns and weak consumer spending continue to complicate policy decisions.

Technical Outlook

VIX (Volatility Index)

After recent U.S. trade headlines, the VIX has respected its long-standing trend support, logging 3 consecutive daily gains. This bounce may signal mounting unease and precede a broader risk-off shift in equities.

Dollar Index (DXY)

The DXY has recovered sharply and is now testing the $101.5 resistance zone. A breakout above could signal further strength. A pullback toward $99 would present a favorable re-entry area for bulls if sentiment remains intact.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. All trading and investment decisions involve risk. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before acting on this information.