🌍 Global Economic Snapshot

🇺🇸 United States

• Goods Trade Balance: -$85.99B (better than -$98.20B prior)
• Consumer Confidence: 97.2 vs 95.0 expected
• JOLTS Job Openings (June): 7.437M vs 7.5M expected
• ADP Employment: 104K vs 75K forecast
• GDP Q2: +3.0% vs +2.4% estimate
• Pending Home Sales: -0.8% vs +0.3% expected
• Initial Jobless Claims: 218K vs 224K estimate
• Core PCE YoY (June): 2.8% vs 2.7% expected
• Weekly Crude Oil Inventory: +7.698M barrels vs -1.288M forecast
• Fed Decision: Rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%
• Non-Farm Payrolls (July): 73K vs 106K forecast
• Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (in line with forecast; prior 4.1%)
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM: +0.3% (in line; prior +0.2%)

🇪🇺 Eurozone

• Germany Retail Sales: 1% m/m vs +0.5% expected
• Germany Q2 GDP: -0.1% q/q (in line with expectations)
• Germany CPI YoY: 2% vs 1.9% expected
• Germany Unemployment Change: +2K vs +15K expected
• France Q2 GDP: 0.3% vs 0.1% expected
• Eurozone Q2 GDP: 0.1% vs 0.0% expected

🇨🇦 Bank of Canada: Leaves interest rates unchanged at 2.75%

🇯🇵 Japan

• Retail Sales: 2% YoY vs +1.8% expected
• Industrial Production: +1.7% m/m vs -0.6% expected
• Manufacturing PMI: 48.9 vs 50.1 (contractionary)
• BoJ Policy: No changes, short-term rate held at 0.5%

🇨🇳 China Manufacturing PMI: 49.3 vs 49.7 expected (contractionary)

🤝 US-EU Trade Deal, But on Whose Terms?

The US and EU struck a last-minute trade deal, locking in a 15% tariff rate and EU commitments to buy more US energy. It avoided escalation for now, but the terms heavily favor Washington.

Germany called it a deal made from a position of weakness, warning of the economic burden and uncertainty over where the promised $600 billion in US investment will land. France too criticized the EU’s lack of negotiating strength, while Macron has urged Brussels to hit back with its “anti-coercion” tools.

🏦 Big Institutions Urge Caution

• UBS: Warned investors not to get too comfortable with the new trade truce.
• JP Morgan: Sees no Fed move in September unless data shifts meaningfully.
• PIMCO: Noted rising core PCE inflation hints at friction under the surface.

📉 China: Gold Outflows, Stocks Rally, But Profits Slip

Investors withdrew 3.2B yuan ($450M) from gold ETFs in July, while CSI 300 surged 5%. Despite optimism, industrial profits fell 4.3% YoY in June and are down 1.8% in H1 2025.

⚠️ Tariff Barrage and Global Tensions

Trump raised Canadian tariffs to 35% and added 25% on India. He called India and Russia "dead economies." Russia’s Medvedev warned of war escalation. Trump fired back with threats.

📊 Earnings & Insights

Meta: Revenue +16% to $47.52B; EPS $7.14. Strong AI and Reels growth.

Amazon: Revenue +11% to $167.7B; EPS $1.68. AWS and ads offset weaker e-commerce.

Microsoft: Revenue +10% to $76.4B; EPS $3.65. Azure & enterprise AI outperformance.

Apple: Revenue +7% to $94.0B; EPS $1.57. Services & wearables lead, FX pressure in China.

📉 Market at Key Levels

Gold: On track for 3rd weekly drop, broke below triangle pattern.

Dow Jones: Triple top forming near 45,000. Watch 43,700 support.

VIX: Rebounds from rising trendline. Potential volatility spike in August.