• US initial jobless claims matched estimates at 210K.
• US crude oil inventories exploded +6926K barrels against +477K expected.
• US January construction spending dropped -0.3% versus +0.1% forecast.
• UK February CPI held at +3.0% y/y as anticipated.
• Australian CPI Core eased to 3.3% y/y, just below 3.4% expected.
• Australia composite PMI plunged to 47.0 (Feb: 52.4) — first contraction in 18 months.
• Eurozone Services PMI slipped to 50.1, missing 51.1 forecast.

President Trump has announced a 10-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure until April 6, saying it followed a request from Tehran for room to negotiate. That account was quickly challenged by mediators, who said no formal Iranian request had been made, underscoring how fragile and contested the diplomacy remains.

Iran has signaled only conditional openness, after receiving a 15-point U.S. proposal via Pakistan, but distrust is high and the leadership appears divided. Tehran reportedly believes it has been “tricked twice,” while the continued U.S. military buildup is only reinforcing those concerns.

With both sides still far apart and little alignment on interlocutors, the talks look more like signaling than substance for now. The result is a tense pause, not a breakthrough, and markets should expect headlines to keep driving volatility.

ECB President Lagarde acknowledged the limits of monetary policy in offsetting energy shocks, emphasizing agility and a data-dependent approach under “profound uncertainty.”

Within the ECB, views are diverging:

• Nagel keeps April hike expectations alive
• Lane flags weakening demand signals and wage dynamics
• Kazimir signals readiness to act if inflation drifts

In the UK, BoE’s Greene struck a cautious but hawkish tone highlighting a sharp jump in inflation expectations (5.4%) as a growing concern, even without an immediate push for hikes.

• Fed’s Barr signals rates may stay on hold “for some time” as inflation and oil risks persist.
• Goolsbee echoes Barr, noting energy shocks cloud the rate outlook.
• Waller warns that prolonged high oil prices could eventually feed into inflation.
• Vice Chair Jefferson highlights that sustained energy costs may worsen inflation pressures.
• Cook flags rising inflation risks as the Iran conflict reduces the likelihood of near-term rate cuts.

The OECD now sees the conflict dragging on global growth while reinforcing inflation pressures:

• Global growth: 2.9% (2026), 3.0% (2027)
• US: 2.0% (2026), 1.7% (2027)
• Eurozone: 0.8% (2026), 1.2% (2027)
• UK: 0.7% (2026), 1.3% (2027)
• China: 4.4% → 4.3%
• Japan: 0.9% unchanged

BlackRock’s Larry Fink warned that a sustained move toward $150 oil could trigger a sharp global recession.

The path forward remains binary:

• A de-escalation scenario pulling prices lower
• Or a prolonged conflict locking oil above $100, with $150 in play

Central banks are already reacting:

• RBA warns of a dual shock to growth and inflation, with risks of de-anchored expectations
• BoJ minutes reinforce gradual tightening as inflation approaches target
• Fed officials broadly signal that sustained energy pressure could delay rate cuts and bleed into core inflation

• Japan has called for coordinated oil stockpile releases.
• Japanese yields continue to surge — 5-year at 1.75% (highest since 2000), 2-year at 1.339% (since 1996).
• European equities are heading for their worst monthly drop since the pandemic.
• Roughly $3.5 trillion in market cap has been wiped out since the conflict began.
• Turkey sold 58 tons of gold in two weeks.
• US imports of Venezuelan crude have climbed to their highest since 2019.