• Japan PPI rose 0.1% m/m, matching expectations but easing from the prior reading.
• US crude inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels, against expectations for a draw.
• US retail sales beat forecasts at +0.6%, showing the consumer remains resilient.
• US PPI came in hotter than expected at 3.0% y/y, keeping inflation concerns alive.
• US new home sales rose to 737k, above estimates, suggesting housing demand is holding up.
• US CPI matched expectations at 2.7% y/y, offering no fresh surprises for markets.
• US jobless claims fell to 198k, well below forecasts, pointing to a still-tight labor market.
• UK GDP grew 0.3% m/m, beating expectations and easing recession worries.

ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks warned that continued political pressure on the US Federal Reserve adds another layer of uncertainty to the global economic outlook. He noted that risks around inflated asset valuations, trade tensions, and broader geopolitical developments are clouding policy expectations, leaving little room for complacency.

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos struck a more balanced tone, saying inflation is currently in a good place. However, he highlighted that markets may be underestimating geopolitical and financial stability risks, especially given stretched valuations in concentrated asset markets.

China described Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit as “pivotal” and “symbolic,” signaling interest in stabilizing relations after years of tension. Both sides struck a cooperative tone, focusing on rebuilding trust and improving communication. While no policy changes were announced, the language marks a shift toward engagement rather than confrontation.

Chinese customs authorities reportedly informed agents that Nvidia’s H200 AI chips are not permitted to enter the country. The guidance appears strict, with limited exemptions potentially allowed only for research or university use. The move reinforces ongoing risks around Nvidia’s exposure to the China market amid escalating tech controls.

China posted a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025. Exports grew strongly, particularly to emerging markets, as companies adjusted supply chains to navigate tariffs. Despite ongoing trade frictions, analysts note that global demand for low-cost Chinese goods remains firm.

President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on select advanced AI chips, including Nvidia’s H200 and AMD’s MI325X. The move is framed as part of a broader push to secure critical technology supply chains. Exemptions remain for chips tied to domestic manufacturing and essential US tech infrastructure, but further semiconductor tariffs may follow.

Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, effective immediately. The measure raises fresh uncertainty for global trade, with China, India, Turkey, and the UAE among Iran’s key trading partners.

A senior Russian official warned that any US military action against Iran would be a serious mistake, cautioning that it could destabilise the region and disrupt oil markets. The comments highlight rising geopolitical sensitivities in the Middle East.

Jamie Dimon said the US economy remains resilient, supported by consumer spending and broadly healthy corporate balance sheets. However, he warned that markets may be underestimating geopolitical risks, sticky inflation, and stretched asset valuations, which could amplify volatility if conditions deteriorate.

Societe Generale noted that the US dollar’s safe-haven status has weakened amid geopolitical unpredictability and political pressure on the Fed. Strong gold performance suggests investors are reducing dollar exposure rather than rotating into other currencies.

New York Fed President John Williams defended Chair Jerome Powell, stressing that central bank independence is critical for economic stability. He warned that weakening this independence historically leads to worse inflation and growth outcomes.

• Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee said jobs data points to stability and inflation progress, though more evidence is needed before cutting rates further.
• Philadelphia Fed’s Paulson said she is comfortable holding rates steady for now, watching closely for any signs of labor market weakness.
• San Francisco Fed’s Daly said policy is well positioned, but decisions will need to remain cautious given uncertainty around inflation and employment.

• Gold and silver surged as uncertainty around Fed independence drove safe-haven demand.
• USDJPY climbed to its highest level since July 2024.
• Google crossed a $4 trillion market cap on news of an AI partnership with Apple.
• Meta announced layoffs of 1,500 employees in its metaverse division.
• US natural gas prices fell to a 12-week low on weaker LNG export demand.
• Tesla moved its Full Self-Driving feature to a monthly subscription model.