Global Economic Snapshot

United States

• • Core PPI (MoM): -0.1% vs 0.3% expected
• • Core PPI (YoY): 2.8% vs 3.5% expected
• • CPI (MoM): 0.4% vs 0.3% expected
• • Core CPI (YoY): 3.1% in line with forecast
• • Initial Jobless Claims: 263K vs 235K estimate

Eurozone

• • ECB Interest Rate: 2.15% (unchanged)
• • Germany Industrial Production: +1.3% vs +1.0%
• • Germany Trade Balance: €14.7B vs €15.3B expected
• • Germany CPI (YoY): +2.2% in line with forecast

United Kingdom

• GDP (MoM): 0.0% (in line with expectation)

China

• August Inflation Data: CPI -0.4% y/y vs -0.2% expected

Japan

• Q2 GDP: +0.5% q/q (better than +0.3% preliminary)

Political Turmoil in France and Japan

France and Japan both saw their governments collapse this week. In France, Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted after a no-confidence vote sparked by his unpopular austerity budget, deepening instability under President Macron. Macron must now appoint a new prime minister to lead what will be his fourth government since reelection. In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stepped down amid pressure from his party after multiple electoral defeats, leading to the loss of the ruling coalition’s majority. His resignation paves the way for a new leadership contest and potential political shift.

ECB Press Briefing: Key Messages

• • Growth remains held back by higher tariffs, a strong euro, and global competition.
• • Fiscal spending should help support investment.
• • Surveys show resilience in both manufacturing and services.
• • Economic risks are now more balanced, rather than skewed to the downside.
• • Inflation outlook is especially uncertain, with no clear signal on risks.
• • The stronger euro could push inflation lower than current forecasts.

Central Bank Independence Under Spotlight

Kevin Hassett, head of the White House National Economic Council and possible Fed chair nominee, underlined the importance of an independent central bank, cautioning that political interference typically fuels inflation and consumer hardship. His comments follow mounting pressure from President Trump on the Fed to cut rates and the attempted removal of Governor Lisa Cook, who is legally contesting her dismissal.

Middle East Tensions Escalate

Qatar condemned Israel’s attack on a Hamas delegation, calling the strike a blatant breach of international law. Saudi Arabia voiced its strong disapproval and pledged full support for Qatar, warning of severe consequences if Israeli actions continue. The White House assured Qatar that such strikes would not be repeated after the Pentagon notified it of the attack’s timing.

US Labor Market Slowdown Draws Warnings

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the recent sharp downward revision in US payroll numbers confirms a loss of momentum in the US economy. The Labor Department cut its estimate of job growth by 911,000 for the year ending March 2025, marking the largest adjustment in over two decades and raising the risk of slower growth ahead.

Macro Insights

• • CIBC on US CPI: CIBC economists see widening tariff impacts, with CPI data showing signs of rising prices in larger consumer categories. The report is not expected to deter the Fed from cutting rates in September but highlights the need for continued job market support and likely muted price pressures moving forward.
• • Gold: China added gold for a tenth consecutive month, increasing reserves by 0.06 million troy ounces to 74.02 million ounces total. The purchases coincided with a surging gold price, which hit a record above $3,650/oz, up over 35% year-on-year, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and escalating global tensions.

Market at Key Levels

Nvidia

The daily chart shows a clear breach of the uptrend, signaling a pause in bullish momentum. Price action has stalled, resistance now established near the $182 level. As long as the stock remains capped below this area, the bias remains bearish.

A decisive move above $182 would invalidate the current bearish setup and potentially restore upward momentum. Until that key resistance breaks, sellers remain in control, and the risk is skewed to further downside.

Crude Oil (WTI)

Oil is approaching a critical level on the weekly chart, with price action now testing levels last visited ahead of a major rally. The $60 area stands out as the "line in the sand “a decisive close below this support could trigger fresh selling and intensify downside pressure. Conversely, holding above $60 is likely to keep price action contained within the recent trading range, limiting directional volatility and favoring consolidation over breakout moves.

Disclaimer:

The information in this article is for general information only and does not represent financial or investment advice. Markets are unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions, please do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on this content.