Global Economic Snapshot

• US initial jobless claims: 236K vs 220K expected
• US trade deficit: –$52.8B vs –$63.3B
• Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75%
• US JOLTS: 7.60M vs 7.15M
• Crude inventories: –1.812M vs –2.310M
• SNB holds rate at 0.00%
• Bank of Canada holds rate at 2.25%
• Germany trade balance: €16.9B vs €15.6B
• Germany industrial production: +1.8% m/m vs +0.4%
• RBA holds rate at 3.60%

China posts another huge trade surplus

China delivered one of its largest monthly trade surpluses on record in November at USD 111.68B, comfortably above the prior month’s USD 90.7B. Exports rose 5.9% y/y, imports gained 1.9%, and rare earth shipments jumped to 5,494 tonnes. The year-to-date surplus has now reached 7.7T yuan. Despite ongoing trade tensions, China continues to dominate global export share with little sign of pressure on its external engine.

SNB’s Schlegel says policy will stoke inflation slowly

SNB Chair Martin Schlegel signaled continuity: policy remains expansive, inflation pressures are broadly unchanged, and the bank stands ready to intervene in FX markets if needed. He noted moderate global growth ahead but flagged persistent risks, including U.S. tariff policy. Schlegel also reiterated that the bar for negative rates is higher but not off the table, and the SNB will adjust course only if medium-term inflation shifts meaningfully.

Fed decision FOMC highlights

The Fed cut 25bps and described the new policy range as plausibly neutral. Powell stressed the committee is split, some prefer pausing, others favor further easing; decisions remain meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent. He noted prior cuts are only beginning to filter through and that the Fed is front-loading Treasury purchases into tax-season to smooth liquidity.

RBA turns hawkish as Bullock opens door to hikes

Governor Michele Bullock warned that if inflation fails to slow, the February meeting is in play for tightening. The board has shifted its messaging toward upside risks, and the January quarterly inflation print now carries real weight. The RBA is effectively signaling a conditional but clear path toward a potential February hike should data break the wrong way.

Mexico approves sweeping tariffs on Asian imports

Mexico’s Senate passed tariffs ranging from 5% to 50% on imports from China and several Asian economies without existing trade agreements. The sharpest increases hit light vehicles (50%), textiles and clothing (35%), and key industrial inputs like steel and aluminum. The move aims to protect local producers as global supply chains realign.

ECB officials reinforce steady-rates guidance

ECB officials broadly signaled rates should stay at present levels. While some comments have nudged markets to price modest tightening risks further out, the immediate message is pause and data-dependence.

RBC sees gold averaging $4,600 in 2026

RBC Capital Markets expects gold to push higher over the next two years, forecasting an average of $4,600 in 2026 and a peak of $5,100 in 2027. Analysts cite central bank buying and sustained investor demand as structural supports, even after a 60% year-to-date surge.

Oracle: earnings spark investor concern on AI spending

Oracle reported EPS $2.26 (beat) and revenue $16.06B (slightly below expectations). Cloud infrastructure revenue rose strongly, while legacy software license revenue declined. The market’s reaction, a >10% after-hours drop, reflects investor unease over the speed and scale of AI-related spending and whether margins will absorb the investment push.

Market Highlights

Silver surged past $64 to fresh records, with gold pushing towards $4,300.

The S&P 500 is testing all-time highs above $6900, Dow Jones ($48850) and small caps ($2600) have already broken to new records, while Nasdaq lagged throughout the week.