What You Missed Out on This Week

Behind the market's strong performance, global data pointed to growing uncertainty, reminding investors that momentum doesn’t always reflect the bigger picture. Here’s a quick recap of what you need to know.

Markets Rally on Trade Hopes, While Gold and Oil Slide

The S&P 500 posted its seventh straight daily gain, the longest winning streak of the year, fueled by renewed optimism over potential U.S. trade deals. The VIX volatility index dropped sharply, signaling easing investor concerns.

Gold: Prices are on pace for another weekly decline, pressured by weaker demand. The China Gold Association reported a drop in Q1 gold consumption, raising concerns about global demand softness.

Oil: Crude remains under pressure as Saudi Arabia signals it is willing to sustain low oil prices for an extended period, briefing allies and industry experts on its long-term strategy.

A recent analysis revealed that Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office marked the worst stock market performance for any U.S. president in the past 50 years.

Global Economic Data Flashes Warning Signs

United States

• Consumer confidence fell to 86.0 (est. 87.7; prev. 93.9)
• Job openings dropped by 288,000 in March to 7.192 million — lowest since 2020
• ADP payrolls rose just 62,000 in April (est. 114,000) — weakest since Feb. 2022
• Q1 GDP unexpectedly contracted by -0.3% (est. +0.2%)
• Chicago PMI slipped to 44.6 (est. 45.9)
• Jobless claims rose to 241,000 — highest since October

Despite weaker growth, inflation remains sticky, with March PCE up 2.3% y/y and core PCE at 2.6%.

Asia

• Japan’s March industrial output fell -1.1% (est. -0.5%)
• China’s April manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0 — lowest since May 2023
• Services PMI ticked down to 50.4, reflecting muted expansion

The Bank of Japan held rates steady and slashed its 2025 growth outlook, citing ongoing trade uncertainties.

Tariff Relief for U.S.-Made Cars

Commerce Secretary Lutnick Announces Exemptions: Vehicles with at least 85% U.S. content will be exempt from tariffs, under the administration’s updated trade rules. He emphasized that this move aligns with long-term economic policy goals, noting that the President is “not focused on markets,” but rather on sustaining U.S. manufacturing and trade stability.

ECB Moves Toward June Rate Cut Amid Growing Consensus

The European Central Bank is signaling a likely rate cut in June, as a Reuters report cites six officials backing the move. Market expectations now price in a 71% probability of a cut. Key ECB members, including Simkus, Villeroy, and Rehn, have expressed openness to further reductions if inflation remains below the 2% target.

Final Takeaway

This week underscored the divide between market momentum and economic fundamentals. While optimism over trade talks and policy developments lifted stocks, weak economic data from the U.S. and Asia raised fresh concerns about slowing global growth.

With the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracting in Q1 and inflation remaining sticky, attention now turns to Friday’s monthly jobs report, where the U.S. economy is expected to add 138k jobs. A softer-than-expected reading could amplify worries about the health of the labor market and fuel speculation over Fed rate cuts.

Markets may be rising, but the road ahead remains uncertain.

Disclaimer:
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All financial markets involve risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.