🌍 Global Economic Snapshot

CN China

• • Q2 GDP grew by 1.1% q/q vs. 0.9% expected
• • June retail sales rose 4.8% y/y vs. 5.4% expected
• • June industrial production climbed 6.8% y/y vs. 5.7% expected

GB United Kingdom

• • June CPI increased 3.6% y/y vs. 3.4% expected
• • The unemployment rate rose to 4.7% vs. 4.6% expected

EU Eurozone

• • Trade surplus widened to €16.2 billion vs. €14.0 billion prior
• • Industrial production jumped 1.7% m/m vs. 0.9% expected
• • CPI held steady at 2.0% y/y (in line with preliminary estimate)

US United States

• • June core CPI eased to 2.9% y/y vs. 3.0% expected: Headline CPI: 2.7% y/y vs. 2.6% estimate
• • PPI flat MoM at 0.0% vs. 0.2% expected; YoY at 2.3% vs. 2.5%
• • Industrial production rose 0.3% vs. 0.1% expected
• • June retail sales were up 0.6% vs. 0.1% expected
• • Weekly crude oil inventories fell -3.859M vs. -0.552M expected
• • Initial jobless claims came in at 221K vs. 235K expected

DE Germany

• • July ZEW current conditions improved to -59.5 vs. -66.0 expected
• • June PPI increased +0.1% m/m vs. 0.0% expected

📉 U.S. Trade Strategy Takes a Harder Line

President Trump reiterated his stance on Russia, warning of severe tariffs within 50 days if a resolution isn’t reached. A new weapons deal was also announced, arms will be manufactured by NATO partners, but paid for by NATO directly, with Patriot missile deliveries expected soon.

Tariff threats weren’t limited to Russia. Trump proposed a sweeping 30% tariff on goods from the EU and Mexico, effective August 1. Similar warnings have been sent to Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. While Trump claims openness to trade talks, his administration’s rhetoric and actions are drawing sharp responses globally.

Canadian Prime Minister Carney commented that U.S. tariffs now appear to be a permanent fixture of trade negotiations, not just temporary leverage.

🔥 Powell in the Firing Line? Markets Take Notice

Deutsche Bank sparked headlines by suggesting markets are underestimating the risk of Trump firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has publicly criticized Powell again this week, calling him “a knucklehead” and blaming the Fed’s board for dragging their feet. He floated the possibility of leadership change but stopped short of committing to it, instead mentioning Kevin Hassett as a potential candidate.

Federal Reserve officials responded with caution. Barkin and Daly warned of rising price pressures tied to tariffs. Collins and Logan noted the Fed can afford to wait and observe. Bostic reiterated the need to stay independent amid political pressure. Kugler called for keeping rates steady due to persistent inflationary risks.

JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs both expressed concerns over potential political interference, highlighting risks to Fed credibility and inflation control. Goldman CEO David Solomon said Fed independence remains “super important,” while warning against undermining monetary policy.

💸 Spending Cuts Signed into Law

The U.S. House passed a Trump-backed bill slashing $9 billion in federal spending, with cuts targeting public broadcasting and foreign aid. The move marks the first successful rescission request by a U.S. president in years, with Trump expected to sign it shortly.

📊 Market at Key Levels

🥇 Gold

A symmetrical triangle has taken shape on the daily chart, signaling a potential inflection point ahead. For nearly three months, price action has been coiling within tightening range boundaries reflecting an ongoing standoff between buyers and sellers. This kind of consolidation often precedes a strong directional move. A decisive breakout on either side of the structure could dictate the next leg of the trend, and with volatility compressing, a momentum shift appears imminent. Traders should keep a close eye on volume and follow-through once price exits the pattern.

📈 Dow Jones (US30)

The Dow is once again testing the highs last seen in December 2024, marking the third attempt at this key resistance level. Whether it proves to be third time lucky remains to be seen. From a technical standpoint, the repeated failures to break higher are beginning to resemble a potential triple top formation. Unless the index manages a clean breakout with conviction, this structure could signal exhaustion and raise the risk of a reversal.