WEEKLY RECAP

United States:

• • Existing home sales: 3.93M vs 4.0M est.
• • New home sales: 627K vs 650K est.
• • Initial jobless claims: 217K vs 226K est.
• • Crude oil inventories: -3.169M vs -1.565M est.
• • S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 49.5 vs 52.7 est.

Europe & UK:

• • Eurozone PMI: 51.2 vs 50.7 est.
• • Germany PMI: 49.2 vs 49.5 est.
• • France PMI: 49.7 vs 49.6 est.
• • UK PMI: 51.2 vs 53.0 est.
• • UK Retail Sales: +0.9% m/m vs +1.2% est.

Japan:

• • Manufacturing PMI: 48.8 vs 50.2 est.
• • Tokyo CPI: 2.9% y/y vs 3.0% est.
• • Services PPI: +3.2% y/y, in line with est.

China:

• • PBOC held 1Y LPR at 3.00% and 5Y LPR at 3.50%.

ECB:

Held rates steady. President Lagarde emphasized inflation is aligning with target levels, supported by moderating labor costs and stable expectations. Growth outperformed in Q1, but risks remain from tariffs, a stronger euro, and geopolitical uncertainty. No shift in FX policy but it's being watched closely.

RBA:

Left rates unchanged at 3.85%. July minutes showed the board preferred to wait for clearer signs of disinflation. While some data was firmer than expected, most members agreed that further cuts now would be premature and potentially undermine policy credibility.

Former Fed Chair Yellen:

Janet Yellen reiterated her support for the Fed's independence and pushed back against the idea of a politically influenced central bank. She emphasized that the Fed should remain data-driven and focused on its dual mandate not on financing costs or political objectives. She also criticized the idea of a "Shadow Fed chair" as highly dangerous.

US–EU Trade Talks:

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the focus is on securing high-quality trade deals rather than rushing to meet the August 1 deadline. While the EU is now more engaged, Bessent stressed that the priority remains getting the best deal for the US, even if it takes longer.

Canada–US Trade Discussions:

Prime Minister Mark Carney echoed a similar stance, saying Canada will only agree to a deal that serves national interests. Talks are complex, and Ottawa will take the time it needs, especially to support workers in steel and lumber industries hit by tariffs.

Trade Announcements:

Donald Trump announced several tariffs deals this week:

• • Philippines: 19% tariff on all imports into the US, with no reciprocal duties.
• • Indonesia: 19% blanket tariff on all products entering the US.
• • Japan: A 15% tariff on auto imports, confirmed by Japanese government sources (NHK).

Tesla (Q2 2025):

Revenue dropped 12% to $22.5B, with net profit down 16% to $1.17B. Vehicle deliveries declined 13.5% as the company begins pivoting toward autonomous vehicles and AI initiatives. Elon Musk cautioned that the transition phase could bring "a few rough quarters" as near-term financials take a hit in exchange for longer-term tech bets.

Alphabet (Q2 2025):

Posted strong results with revenue up 14% to $96.4B and profit rising 19% to $28.2B. Growth was driven by Search, YouTube advertising, and a 32% surge in Google Cloud revenue. The company also ramped up AI infrastructure spending by an additional $10B highlighting deep investment into scaling its AI ecosystem across verticals.

AMD:

CEO Lisa Su acknowledged chips made in TSMC's Arizona plant will cost 5%–20% more than those from Taiwan due to higher labor and infrastructure costs. U.S. chip production may face pricing headwinds.

Gold

Price attempted to break out of the symmetrical triangle but was met with strong rejection, mirroring the failed breakout seen in May. For the past three months, the market has been coiling tighter within this structure, showing little directional commitment. This kind of prolonged compression typically precedes an aggressive move, and whichever side gives first is likely to trigger a significant volatility expansion.

Dollar Index

The first sign of a potential reversal on the Dollar Index is the formation of a new higher low. However, the broader trend still leans bearish. A confirmed break and close above the 100 mark would be needed to validate a shift in trend. On the fundamental side, next week carries weight as market focus will be squarely on the Fed's tone, which is likely to shape the dollar's next directional move.