
Monday, 8th December
China Trade Balance
China’s November trade surplus reached USD 111–112 billion, the largest since mid-2025 and well above both the previous month and consensus expectations. Exports rose 5.9% year-on-year, while imports increased 1.9%, widening the surplus. Cumulatively, China’s trade surplus for the first eleven months of 2025 hit USD 1.08 trillion, surpassing the full-year 2024 surplus and marking the first time the surplus has exceeded USD 1 trillion within a single calendar year.
Tuesday, 9th December
US Jolts Job Openings
The JOLTS report, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, tracks active job openings, hires, and separations (quits, layoffs, etc.). It is closely watched as a gauge of labor-market demand, influencing inflation expectations and potential Federal Reserve policy.
• Consensus expects roughly 7.20 million job openings, flat to slightly down from the prior reading.
• At or above expectations, especially if hires hold up: indicates strong labor demand, potentially reducing pressure for aggressive rate cuts.
• Below expectations: signals labor-market cooling, possibly supporting Fed easing, which could boost risk assets and push yields lower.
Wednesday, 10th December
US Interest Rate Decision (FOMC)
Markets currently price an 85% probability of a 25bp cut to a 3.50–3.75% target range, though uncertainty remains given prior fluctuations between “cut” and “hold.” Investors will focus on the statement’s tone, any forward guidance, and the economic dot-plot/projections, which could shape expectations for 2026.
Implied Volatility
The S&P 500 has an average pre FOMC “drift” of about 0.4–0.5% in the 24 hours before announcements, and on the announcement day itself can move about 1% on average, with larger (1.5–2%+) swings when the decision or guidance significantly surprises.
Major FX pairs against the dollar typically see realized daily ranges around 0.7–1.2% around key FOMC events, with direction driven by the surprise in both the decision and the dots/press conference tone.
Thursday, 11th December
Switzerland Interest Rate Decision
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 0.00%
Despite recent inflation weakening — headline inflation reportedly fell to around 0% in November, the lowest in many months most economists believe that this decline is not enough to prompt a rate cut into negative territory.
US Initial Jobless Claims
US initial jobless claims for the week are expected to come in slightly higher after last week’s unusually low 191K print, with forecasts clustered around 205K–215K. Markets will watch for any jump toward 220K+, which would signal softening labor conditions and increase expectations for Fed easing, while another low reading would reinforce labor-market resilience
Friday, 12th December
UK GDP
UK GDP is expected to show flat to modest growth after Q3’s weak 0.1% rise. A stronger-than-expected print could boost GBP and domestic equities, signaling resilience, while a soft reading would reinforce concerns over sluggish growth, dampen consumer/business confidence, and fuel expectations of looser Bank of England policy.
This week could define how 2025 ends for investors. Equities and gold are at crucial, intriguing levels. Will we see a Santa Rally lifting markets into year-end gains or will the Fed play spoil sport, cooling expectations and putting a damper on the rally? All eyes are on labor data, central-bank decision and key economic releases to set the tone for the year’s finale.