It’s an important week for markets, with central bank events and key economic data taking center stage. Investor focus will be on the RBNZ’s interest rate call, the FOMC meeting minutes, and a speech by Fed Chair Powell—each poised to influence expectations for monetary policy through year-end. In Europe, remarks from ECB officials and the latest German factory orders will illuminate inflation dynamics and industry sentiment. The week closes with Canada’s unemployment report, a key measure of labor market health and policy direction.

Monday, October 6

The economic calendar begins on a muted note, with no major releases or expected market-moving events. Positioning ahead of central bank headlines is likely to dominate trading.

Tuesday, October 7

ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Lagarde is set to speak on monetary policy. With the eurozone economy remaining stable and inflation recently rising to 2.2% just above the ECB’s 2% target—she is expected to maintain a neutral tone. Markets likely won’t react strongly, as her comments are expected to reiterate previous statements, highlighting limited impact from tariffs and no major economic shifts.

German Factory Orders
Consensus points to a seasonally adjusted 1.2% increase, a rebound from July’s 2.9% contraction. Factory orders signal trends in demand and investment—an upside surprise may bolster sentiment towards Germany’s crucial manufacturing sector, support the euro, and ease recession anxieties. Alternatively, a downside miss could reinforce concerns over Europe’s industrial cycle.

Wednesday, October 8

RBNZ Interest rate decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to cut rates, though the magnitude is uncertain:

• 25 bps cut – cautious, measured easing.
• 50 bps cut – more aggressive if economic data weakens sharply.

The majority lean toward a 50-bps cut to 2.50%, while a substantial minority expect 25 bps to 2.75%. Recent commentary highlights the RBNZ’s focus on supporting a sluggish economy, with consecutive cuts in October and November potentially bringing the OCR to 2.25% by year-end. Fresh business confidence (QSBO) data, recent CPI prints, and high-frequency indicators showing muted inflation and weak domestic demand may influence the decision. Policymakers have signaled that aggressive accommodation is justified given recession risks and the goal of sustainable recovery in 2026. Market pricing reflects expectations for continued easing and historically low rates well into next year.

FOMC Meeting Minutes
Markets will scrutinize details from the Fed’s decision to cut rates by 25 bps in September, the first move since 2024. Attention centers on whether the action marks the start of a sustained easing cycle, or a measured response to slowing growth and sticky inflation. A dovish tone and evidence of broader consensus could push expectations toward additional cuts, while resistance from inflation hawks may temper the outlook.

Thursday, October 9

Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Powell is expected to strike a cautiously dovish tone, signaling that further rate cuts are possible but data dependent. He may emphasize uncertainty stemming from the government shutdown and uneven economic data, favoring gradual easing over aggressive moves. Markets will watch closely for commentary on inflation, labor market risks, and Committee dissent. Any hints of faster cuts would be dovish, while reminders of persistent inflation could temper expectations. Overall, Powell’s remarks are likely to balance readiness to act with caution, keeping the Fed’s options flexible.

Friday, October 10

Canadian Unemployment Rate
Forecasts point to a steady jobless rate of 7.1% in September, reflecting persistent labor market headwinds. Recent employment trends show pockets of job losses and sluggish hiring. This release is crucial for gauging economic momentum—an unexpected uptick in unemployment could spur expectations for the Bank of Canada to ease rates further, supporting broader economic activity.

Market Outlook

Nasdaq
The index appears to be holding a strong uptrend, with trendline support guiding price action smoothly. At present, levels around 24,200 seem to act as a reference point; as long as the market remains above it, the overall bias could be considered tilted toward the upside. Any dips toward this area may offer potential for stabilization, while a move below it might invite caution.

Apple
Following the release of the new iPhone, the stock has shown a steady upward trend, approaching but not yet surpassing all-time highs. Levels around 260 could act as a key reference; a sustained weekly close above this may signal the potential for an accelerated rally, while a dip below 250 might weigh on the near-term upside momentum.

Tesla
Last week’s pullback, highlighted on the charts, coincided with the all-time highs set in December 2024. The bearish candle observed was followed by an additional day of downward movement, a sequence that is often interpreted as a potential reversal signal. While not definitive, this pattern may suggest a short-term pause or shift in momentum.