The U.S. strike on Venezuela and the capture of President Maduro has sent ripples through the global political landscape. Questions over sovereignty and international norms have returned to focus, and markets are likely to respond to developments with heightened sensitivity. Events like these increasingly influence short-term risk sentiment and longer-term shifts in global power.

Monday, January 5

US ISM Manufacturing PMI

Consensus expects a slight uptick to 48.3–48.4, still in contraction territory. A headline below 50 and weaker than expected could trigger a risk-off reaction: cyclicals, industrials, small caps, and value may lag, while defensives could catch a bid. If the data is only mildly weak or slightly better than expected, markets may shrug it off, focusing more on Fed rate cuts than growth concerns.

Historically, weaker ISM readings have pushed Treasury yields lower, supporting long-duration and growth stocks. However, if the Prices Paid component remains high, it signals soft growth without easing inflation pressures, which can weigh on equities.

Tuesday, January 6

Eurozone Services PMI

The Services PMI is expected to hold at 52.6, indicating continued expansion but slightly slower growth than in Q4 2025. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations of persistent inflation in services, potentially prompting the ECB to delay or reduce the pace of rate cuts.

Wednesday, January 7

US ISM Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings

ISM Services PMI is forecast at 52.3, still expansionary but slightly softer than prior. JOLTS Job Openings are expected to drift lower to around 7.6–7.7 million, reflecting a gradually cooling labor market. Strong readings could temper expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, signaling resilience in the labor market and reduced recession risk.

Thursday, January 8

German Factory Orders

Consensus projects a −0.9% MoM print, down from +1.5%, reflecting softer demand after lumpy transport equipment orders boosted the prior figure. Weak factory orders highlight divergence in domestic versus foreign demand, and a disappointing print may weigh on the euro and European growth expectations, influencing ECB policy outlook.

Friday, January 9

US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

Economists expect a modest gain of 55,000–60,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.5–4.6%. Sluggish payroll growth or a higher-than-expected unemployment rate could reinforce dovish Fed expectations, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts. Conversely, solid job growth and a stable unemployment rate would signal labor market resilience, supporting a patient Fed approach and reducing near-term easing expectations.

Technical Outlook

Apple

What initially looked like a breakout has now formed into a potential head-and-shoulders pattern. If the stock fails to move above the right shoulder near 280 and then breaks the neckline at 266, it will activate this bearish setup.

Key Levels
Support: 266 / 252
Resistance: 275 / 280

Natural Gas

Price is approaching trendline support and a potential gap fill from October. A bounce here would help maintain the uptrend, while a break below could push prices down toward $3. Geopolitical developments and seasonal factors currently favor the bulls, adding support to the market.

Key Levels
Support: 3.40 / 3.25
Resistance: 3.70 / 4.10

EUR/USD

The pair is showing signs of hesitation around the 1.18 level. With the trend under pressure and lower highs formed, the bullish case appears to be struggling to gain traction.

Key Levels
Support: 1.1610 / 1.1510
Resistance: 1.1725 / 1.1770