This week brings a slate of crucial data releases that will test the resilience of both global growth and monetary policy paths. The US housing market and Chinese manufacturing sector face continued headwinds from affordability pressures and subdued demand. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia is set for a cautious pause in its tightening cycle amid persistent inflation concerns. In the US, manufacturing and labor market reports ranging from the ISM indices to payrolls and jobless claims will be scrutinized for signs of whether the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle is nearing or still some way off. Together these indicators will set the tone for investors as the final quarter of the year kicks off.

Monday, September 29

US Pending Home Sales

Consensus forecasts point to a modest 0.2% rise in pending home sales for August, a slight improvement from July’s 0.4% monthly decline. The US housing market continues to face challenges from affordability constraints and limited supply, compounded by elevated mortgage rates that weigh heavily on buyer activity. Despite some stabilization in mortgage rates, buyers remain cautious amid high prices and economic uncertainty.

Tuesday, September 30

Chinese Manufacturing PMI

China’s Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain close to the contraction threshold, with forecasts around 49.6—marginally up from August’s 49.4. This marks what would be the sixth consecutive month below the 50-point expansion line, reflecting ongoing softness in domestic demand and export orders. Chinese policymakers have introduced targeted measures such as consumer loan subsidies; however, broad stimulus remains limited. The persistently weak PMI readings sustain expectations for further policy easing and targeted support through Q4 if contraction persists.

RBA Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to hold its official cash rate steady at 3.60%. Following three cuts earlier this year, all four major Australian banks anticipate no change this month, though a 25-basis point cut in November remains a possibility contingent on upcoming inflation and employment data. Inflation prints from August and September have deferred expectations for imminent easing, with the RBA signaling a cautious approach until clearer evidence emerges of a sustained inflation downtrend. Market participants will closely scrutinize the post-meeting statement for any hawkish shifts or mention of upside inflation risks.

Wednesday, October 1

US ISM Manufacturing PMI

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast to inch up to 49.1 from August’s 48.7. Although still in contraction territory, this would represent a slight easing in the pace of decline, marking the seventh consecutive month below 50. The improvement is expected to be driven by modest gains in new orders and production; however, employment and export components may continue to face headwinds. A stronger-than-anticipated print could signal emerging resilience, bolstering hopes for a manufacturing rebound by late 2025. Conversely, persistent weakness could reinforce expectations for Federal Reserve easing if other economic data soften.

Thursday, October 2

US Initial Jobless Claims

Initial unemployment claims are projected to rise slightly to approximately 229,000, up from last week’s two-month low of 218,000 but still reflective of a resilient labor market. Firms remain reluctant to initiate layoffs despite slower hiring and declining job openings. Sector-specific fluctuations such as temporary claims surges in Texas and among federal employees are noted, but no widespread deterioration is expected. These data continue to provide reassurance regarding labor market stability amid an overall softening economy.

Friday, October 3

Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to expand by roughly 51,000 jobs in September, indicating a continued cooling in job growth compared to previous months but still above the estimated 40,000 needed to keep unemployment stable. Gains are anticipated mainly in health care and social assistance, with ongoing uncertainty in manufacturing, federal government, and trade sectors. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady or edge down slightly to around 4.3%, influenced in part by rising retirements reducing labor supply and allowing more unemployed workers to find jobs.

Impact on Fed Rate Expectations

Market Outlook

Dollar Index

A potential double bottom appears to have formed last week, supported by corresponding price action. The 100 level remains a key resistance zone; a sustained breakout above this area would confirm the bottom and signal the potential for further upside.

AMD

The overall trend remains bullish as long as the stock holds above the marked support zones. The 150 level acts as immediate support, likely to host short-term consolidation, while the lower marked zone represents the previous breakout from the downtrend. Monitor for bounces or breaches from these key levels.

Natural Gas

A textbook trendline retest and bounce is in play. Gas has been trading in a $2.70–$4.10 range over the past six months. Continued sideways movement near current levels would reinforce the bullish case. Keep an eye on any trendline retests

Disclaimer

The information in this article is for general information only and does not represent financial or investment advice. Markets are unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions, please do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on this content.