How to Avoid Slippage in Trading Do CFDs have slippage
Understand trading slippage, its key causes and how it affects CFDs, plus practical ways to reduce execution risk using order types, liquidity and trading infr…
AUG 13, 2026
00
WEEKLY OUTLOOK
Market Analysis & Key Events • July 28 - August 1, 2025
The Summary
This week's market action kicks off with a massive US \ EU trade agreement involving a huge $750B in energy purchases and $600B in American investments. This set the tone for a week packed with heavyweight data and central bank decisions.
This news may affect major FX pairs and key CFDs across commodities and indices. The EUR/USD could see heightened volatility due to shifting sentiment around trade balances and capital flows, while USD/JPY may climb as risk appetite rises.
US Indices
S&P 500 and Dow Jones stand to benefit from the $600B investment into infrastructure and defence.
Europe
Germany 40 may gain from improved EU export prospects.
Commodities
Oil and natural gas prices could rally on expectations of increased US energy exports.
Key Events This Week
JOLTS Job Openings
Fed Rate Decision
Bank of Canada
Bank of Japan
Core PCE Index
U.S. Jobs Report
Big Tech Earnings
Daily Events
M
Monday, July 28
While Monday may seem quiet at first glance, the week truly began on Sunday with news of a landmark trade deal between the U.S. and European Union.
Speaking from Scotland, President Donald Trump announced the agreement, which includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S. But beyond tariffs, the deal carries significant economic weight.
Key commitments from the EU include:
- 1 $750 billion in U.S. energy purchases.
- 2 $600 billion in investments into the American economy, with a focus on defense and infrastructure.
T
Tuesday, July 29
JOLTS Job Openings
The JOLTS Job Openings report is expected to show 7.49 million openings, slightly down from the prior 7.769 million.
Market Impact:
If openings beat expectations, it could suggest the labor market remains tight, giving the Federal Reserve more breathing room to keep rates higher for longer, potentially supporting the U.S. dollar.
W
Wednesday, July 30
Bank of Canada Rate Decision
The BoC is widely expected to hold rates at 2.75%, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
With strong jobs data in June and rising uncertainty from U.S. tariffs, policymakers are likely to pause again.
U.S. Federal Reserve Rate Decision
The Fed is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, but all eyes will be on the tone of the statement and Chair Powell's press conference.
Markets are currently leaning toward one or two cuts later in 2025.
Wildcard/ Surprise Scenario
If the Fed unexpectedly cuts rates now, possibly due to political pressure from Trump, markets could go haywire. Such a move would risk damaging the Fed's credibility, raise questions about its independence, and inject a high dose of uncertainty into financial markets.
T
Thursday, July 31
Bank of Japan Rate Decision
The BoJ is expected to keep rates steady at 0.50%, even as inflation remains above 2%.
They're likely to stay cautious, waiting for stronger wage growth before signaling any policy shifts.
Core PCE Price Index
- MoM: Expected at 0.3%
- YoY: Expected at 2.7%
This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. If it comes in hot, it signals sticky inflation possibly delaying rate cuts.
F
Friday, August 1
July U.S. Jobs Report
The July U.S. Jobs Report will offer a crucial health check on the labor market:
Non Farm Payrolls
110K
Consensus (vs 147K prior)
Unemployment Rate
4.1%
Likely steady
Avg Hourly Earnings
0.3%
MoM forecast
This data hits at the heart of the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. A softer report may tilt the Fed toward cutting rates sooner.
Big Tech Earnings on Deck
A busy stretch of corporate earnings lies ahead, with major updates expected from tech heavyweights:
Meta Platforms (META)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Apple (AAPL)
Amazon (AMZN)
Strong numbers could help offset macro jitters; any disappointments will be felt across the broader indices.
Technical Outlook
Germany 40
A potential Bull Bat harmonic structure appears to be taking shape on the index, with the 0.886 Fibonacci retracement level around 24,550 acting as a key area of resistance.
Price action near this zone could test the validity of the pattern, a decisive move above it may negate the setup altogether. While the broader structure leans supportive, price behavior since June hasn't exactly inspired conviction.
Dollar Index
The first sign of a potential reversal on the Dollar Index is the formation of a new higher low. However, the broader trend still leans bearish. A confirmed break and close above the 100 mark would be needed to validate a shift in trend.
On the fundamental side, This week carries weight as market focus will be squarely on the Fed's tone, which is likely to shape the dollar's next directional move.
Tesla
A potential bear flag formation is unfolding on Tesla's daily chart. Price remains in a consolidation phase following the recent down leg, typical of this setup.
A break below 300 could confirm the bearish continuation, opening room for further downside. On the flip side, a decisive move above 370 would negate the pattern and shift focus back to the upside.
Disclaimer: This material is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading in financial markets involves risk. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
