A quiet weekend erupted when Trump warned Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face U.S. strikes obliterating its power plants. The IRGC countered sharply: any attack triggers full Strait closure and strikes on vital regional infrastructure such as energy, IT, desalination—while commanders declared a shift to offensive strategy.

Week four of the Iran War thus begins with major escalation. Moments ago, Trump announced a five-day postponement of strikes on Iranian power/energy infrastructure, "subject to ongoing meetings."

Iran's Fars denied any U.S. talks, direct or indirect. Tasnim called it psychological warfare—a retreat after Iran's threats to hit all West Asian power plants, meant to ease energy prices while delaying military plans.

These clashing signals breed extreme volatility. Monitor headlines minute-by-minute—they now rule risk everywhere.

Monday, March 23

Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to fall to -15 from -12, signaling a renewed deterioration in household sentiment. The drop highlights how fragile the European consumer remains, already pressured by weak growth and high borrowing costs, making recent signs of stabilization look premature.

The backdrop is turning more hostile. Rising energy prices, driven by escalating Middle East tensions, are feeding back into expectations and eroding purchasing power in an energy-sensitive region. At this stage, confidence is not just weak — it is sliding further into an environment that offers little near-term scope for recovery.

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Tuesday, March 24

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is expected to slip back into contraction at 49.5 from 50.8, suggesting Europe’s industrial recovery is losing momentum. The sector is already under pressure from weak external demand and tight financial conditions.

Rising energy costs further squeeze margins, especially for energy intensive manufacturers. For equities, this mix is negative: a contracting manufacturing base alongside higher input costs typically weighs on European indices, particularly export driven names.

U.S. Manufacturing PMI

U.S. Manufacturing PMI is expected to show only modest expansion, with the index holding just above the 50 threshold, keeping the sector barely in growth territory. The U.S. has outperformed Europe thanks to stronger domestic demand and fiscal support, but that resilience is now being tested.

Higher oil prices are creating a fresh cost shock that can quickly squeeze margins and sap production momentum. If the upcoming data softens, it will be a warning that even the U.S. industrial base is not immune to the broader geopolitical fallout.

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Wednesday, March 25

Australia CPI

Australia CPI is expected to hold at 3.8%, keeping inflation stuck rather than clearly easing.

This is the first print since the RBA’s notably hawkish meeting, where policymakers flagged persistent price pressures; today’s data will either validate that concern or undercut it. The risk is tilted to the upside: elevated energy prices could start feeding more visibly into headline inflation, complicating the RBA’s path and reinforcing a higher-for-longer policy narrative.

Crude Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Inventories have quickly regained market relevance after being largely overlooked for much of the past year. Last week’s draw of -6.15M barrels pointed to a meaningful tightening in supply, and while this week’s consensus is for a smaller draw, even modest declines matter in the current backdrop.

With supply risks already elevated by geopolitical tensions, continued inventory draws would signal that the market is tightening on a structural basis, not merely reacting to headline risk.

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Thursday, March 26

Natural Gas Storage

Previous natural gas storage data showed a 35B cubic feet build, a smaller-than-expected increase that hinted at firmer demand and slightly tighter conditions than markets assumed.

In a calmer backdrop this would be a secondary release, but in the current environment it carries more weight. Any print below that 35B build would signal tightening supply, adding support to gas prices. More broadly, energy markets are no longer trading in silos — natural gas is increasingly moving in tandem with oil as the overall supply narrative tightens, reinforcing the bid across the complex.

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Friday, March 27

UK Retail Sales

UK Retail Sales are expected to contract by -0.3%, reversing the prior 1.8% gain sharply.

The UK consumer faces ongoing pressure from high interest rates and sticky inflation. A weak print would confirm domestic demand is softening anew.

For the Bank of England, this sets a tough stage: growth weakening even as energy-driven inflation risks climb. The pound risks fresh selling pressure if consumption slowdown is confirmed.