Over the weekend, reports surfaced that Donald Trump indicated he would back Israeli strikes on Iran’s ballistic missile program if negotiations with Tehran break down. The comments were reportedly made during a December meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, with U.S. officials said to have discussed practical support options, including aerial refueling and regional overflight access.
At the same time, Marco Rubio stressed that Washington still prefers a diplomatic outcome. A second round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks is scheduled in Geneva on Tuesday, with envoy Steve Witkoff representing the U.S. side.
The shift in focus is notable. As attention had been circling around renewed scrutiny tied to Jeffrey Epstein, the Iran angle redirects the narrative toward national security.
Monday, February 16
US markets remained closed on Monday in observance of Washington’s Birthday, leading to lighter global volumes and relatively muted price action across asset classes.
Tuesday, February 17
Canadian CPI
In its last meeting, the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate steady at 2.25%, signaling a patient, data-dependent approach. Officials emphasized that future moves would hinge on incoming economic readings, with inflation and growth closely watched. Tuesday’s CPI release is the first major test — consensus expects headline inflation around 2.4–2.5% y/y and a modest +0.1% m/m gain.
If the print surprises to the upside, markets could quickly price in a more hawkish tone for the next meeting. On the other hand, a softer outcome would reinforce the “wait-and-see” stance. Either way, all eyes will be on the data to gauge the Bank’s next step and the potential ripple through rates, the Canadian dollar, and bond markets.
Wednesday, February 18
RBNZ Interest Rate decision
In its last meeting, the RBNZ kept the official cash rate at 2.25%, sticking to a patient, data-dependent approach. Policymakers have made it clear that future moves will hinge on incoming inflation and growth trends. The latest inflation print showed annual CPI rising to 3.1%, slightly above expectations and above the bank’s 3% target band, driven by fuel, airfares, and services.
If the trend continues or surprises higher in the coming quarter, the RBNZ could adopt a more hawkish tone, signaling a pause or even a rate increase. Conversely, softer readings would likely keep the central bank on hold. Either way, markets will be watching closely, as the next statement could shape the NZ dollar and broader risk sentiment.
FOMC Meeting Minutes
The FOMC Meeting Minutes from the January 28–29 session is set for release on 18 February 2026. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75%, signaling a cautious, data-dependent stance. Markets will be looking for clues on how officials view inflation and growth risks, and whether there’s support for cutting rates later this year if the economy softens.
Any tilt toward caution or lingering hawkish concerns could lift yields and the dollar, while a dovish undertone might reinforce expectations of future easing. Though the minutes won’t move policy directly, they will be closely parsed for the Fed’s thinking on the next steps.
Thursday, February 19
US Trade Balance
The weekly U.S. unemployment claims report is expected at 229,000, slightly above last week’s 227,000. The four-week moving average remains stable, pointing to a still-tight labor market.
Markets will watch for any signs of rising claims, which could hint at slowing job growth, while another steady print would reinforce the picture of resilience. Even small moves can influence expectations for the Fed’s next policy steps. Overall, the data is expected to show a labor market holding firm.
Friday, February 20
US Core PCE price index
All eyes will be on the US Core PCE Price Index release — the inflation reading that could steal the spotlight for the week. Expectations are for 3.0% y/y versus 2.8% last month, and +0.3% m/m versus 0.2%, signaling that price pressures are stubbornly sticking around.
If the number comes in hotter than expected, it could immediately tilt the Fed’s narrative back toward caution and inject fresh volatility into Wall Street, potentially reshaping sentiment for the rest of the month. Even a soft surprise won’t go unnoticed — traders know Core PCE is Fed’s favorite gauge, and every tick counts. Friday’s print isn’t just data; it could be the week’s gamechanger.
Disclaimer
The information in this article is for general information only and does not represent financial or investment advice. Markets are unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions, please do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on this content.