This week delivers a backlog of delayed economic data, giving markets a clearer read on growth, inflation, and labor conditions as 2025 draws to a close. With several key releases arriving after weeks of disruption, investors finally get a reality check that could influence positioning into year-end.

Monday, December 15

Canadian CPI

Canada’s November CPI is expected to ease to 2.0% YoY from 2.2%, with core inflation also softening. A reading near 2.0% would support the BoC’s dovish path and keep January cuts on track, while a higher print could delay easing and boost the CAD. Markets price 2–3 cuts in early 2026 if inflation stays on target.

Tuesday, December 16

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate

The November employment report is expected to show modest job growth of around 40,000, with some analysts looking for a rebound toward 50,000 following October’s one-off weakness tied to federal payroll disruptions.

The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.4%, its highest level in nearly four years. While well above the sub-4% rates seen in 2022–23, it remains short of recessionary territory. With the Fed’s December meeting behind us, this report will be central to shaping expectations for early-2026 policy.

Wednesday, December 17

UK Inflation

UK CPI inflation is expected to ease slightly to 3.5% year-on-year in November, down from 3.6% in October. Core inflation is forecast to edge lower to around 3.3%–3.4%, reflecting continued moderation in services and underlying price pressures.

On a monthly basis, CPI is expected to rise by 0.2%–0.3%, following a flat September and a stronger October reading.

Thursday, December 18

U.S. CPI

The U.S. CPI release incorporates delayed October data following the government shutdown. Recent Fed commentary suggests limited concern over inflation, with Chair Powell highlighting easing services inflation and goods price pressures largely driven by tariffs, which are expected to peak in early 2026 before fading.

Powell reiterated that long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored and that tariff effects are largely one-off. JPMorgan noted that his tone suggests the Fed is comfortable holding rates near neutral and views policy as sufficiently restrictive for now. As a result, policymakers appear more focused on labor-market weakness than upside inflation risks.

That said, inflation remains above target, potentially limiting the scope for further rate cuts if price pressures fail to ease. Three officials dissented at the last meeting, arguing policy should have been left unchanged.

ECB Interest Rate Decision

The ECB is widely expected to leave rates unchanged. Recent euro-area data have surprised to the upside, with firmer growth, resilient labor markets, and sticky services inflation.

Goldman Sachs expects the ECB’s updated projections to show improved growth prospects for 2025–26, while inflation forecasts remain broadly consistent with the target. This backdrop raises the bar for further rate cuts and supports expectations that the Governing Council will stay on hold, maintaining a data-dependent approach. President Lagarde is likely to stress flexibility, avoiding any pre-commitment on future policy moves.

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, with markets assigning a high probability to such a move. Most economists expect further easing to 3.5% by the end of March.

Recent data support a dovish shift. Inflation appears to have peaked, labor-market reports point to weakening employment, and GDP data for September and October undershot expectations. PMI surveys and retail sales continue to signal a soft growth outlook, leaving the decision finely balanced but tilted toward a cut.

Friday, December 19

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, following a series of hawkish signals from officials and media sources. Governor Ueda has emphasized the risks of delaying tightening for too long, noting that gradual hikes under accommodative conditions would not derail economic growth.

Markets now anticipate a December move, with attention turning to guidance on the pace of further normalization. Most economists expect rates to rise toward 1.00% by late 2026.