Monday, 10 November

Dramatic progress was made over the weekend towards ending the U.S. government shutdown, the country’s longest ever. Late Sunday, Senate lawmakers voted 60-40 in a test vote to advance legislation funding the government through 30 January 2026, with eight Democrats supporting a Republican proposal that also included assurances on reinstating federal workers fired during the shutdown and holding a later vote on certain healthcare subsidies.

The Senate still needs to hold a final vote on the spending bill, after which it must be approved by the House and signed by President Donald Trump. The shutdown, which entered its 40th day on Sunday, is the 15th since 1981, the second under President Trump, and is projected to have cost tens of billions of dollars in lost GDP.

Markets responded positively: S&P 500 futures rose 50 points (+0.7%), Nasdaq 100 futures gained 325 points (+1.3%), and Dow futures climbed 150 points (+0.3%).

Tuesday, 11 November

With federal data releases still suspended due to the U.S. government shutdown, the UK unemployment rate and German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index carry added focus this week.

UK Unemployment Rate: Expected to edge up slightly to 4.9% from 4.8%. The rate has remained near historic lows for the past year, reflecting steady labor market conditions.

Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment: Analysts anticipate a modest increase to 41.0 from 39.3 points in October. Over the past year, the index has fluctuated around the 35-45 range, indicating ongoing caution among investors.

Wednesday, 12 November

German HICP

In Germany, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP YoY) is expected to come in at 2.3%, matching the previous reading of 2.3%. Recent data show inflation holding around this level, reflecting a persistent but moderate price rise environment.

Historically, when German inflation undershoots or meets expectations at this level, the DAX (Germany’s main index) has tended to show muted or modest upside moves, as markets reassess policy path expectations.

Thursday, 13 November

UK GDP

UK GDP data is the key release this week. The past three readings have been mixed: Q2 2025 rose 0.3% q/q (down from 0.7% in Q1), July was flat at 0.0% m/m, and August edged +0.1% m/m, slightly above expectations.

Historically, weaker than expected GDP prints have pressured sterling, reflecting concerns over economic slowdown and potential BoE policy easing. Conversely, modest upside surprises have supported GBP temporarily, indicating that even small shifts in growth influence market sentiment. The upcoming release will be closely watched for clues on the UK’s growth trajectory and near-term interest-rate expectations.

Friday, 14 November

China Industrial Production

The spotlight turns to China’s industrial production release. Analysts expect a year on year increase of around 5.5% (vs the prior reading of 6.5%). Given the industrial sector’s share of GDP (roughly a third) it is a major barometer of economic health.

Should production undershoot expectations, the Chinese yuan and Asia risk sentiment may face pressure; should it outperform, there could be a near term boost in risk assets.

Technical Outlook

Nasdaq

Over the past two weeks, the index has swung roughly 1,500 points. However, looking at the broader trend, it remains intact as long as the trendline highlighted in the chart below holds.

Key Levels

Support: 25,000 / 24,500

Resistance: 25,530 / 25,710

Microsoft

A clear double top has formed on the daily chart. Over the past two weeks, the stock has declined by roughly 10%. It is currently holding near the neckline of this pattern, and a break below could trigger significant selling pressure.

Key Levels

Support: 490 / 445

Resistance: 512 / 525

GBP/JPY

Following last month’s trend reversal, the pair is now tracing a series of lower highs,a textbook example of a bearish pattern. This setup would be invalidated if the pair climbs above 205.50, forming a new high.

Key Levels

Support: 201.80 / 200

Resistance: 203.30 / 204.10

Disclaimer

The information in this article is for general information only and does not represent financial or investment advice. Markets are unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions, please do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on this content.