This week will feature a mix of critical economic data, including US manufacturing and services PMIs, labor market reports, and eurozone manufacturing figures. The US observes a holiday on Monday, pausing trading, while attention in Europe centers on whether manufacturing momentum is sustained after a rare expansion reading.

The US data later in the week, including ISM PMIs, JOLTS job openings, and Nonfarm Payrolls, will be closely watched for signals on labor market strength and inflation pressures ahead of the September Federal Reserve meeting. Market reactions will likely hinge on whether key data exceed or fall short of expectations, impacting rate cut probabilities.

Monday, September 1

U.S. markets are closed for Labor Day, with trading set to resume on Tuesday. Over in Europe, attention turns to manufacturing data from the eurozone. The latest flash PMI signaled expansion for the first time in over three years, and investors will be watching the final numbers closely to gauge whether the recovery momentum is holding.

Tuesday, September 2 – US ISM Manufacturing PMI

Analysts anticipate the ISM Manufacturing PMI to rise slightly to 48.9 for August 2025, continuing a trend of sub-50 readings that reflect ongoing weakness in US manufacturing activity.

The modest upturn is driven by slight rebounds in production and inventories, though new orders and employment continue to contract. Inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions remain concerns, with supplier delivery times showing some improvement in July.

Wednesday, September 3 – US JOLTS Job Openings

Consensus expectations point towards a continued slide, with forecasts in the 7.2–7.24 million range. The downward revision in job opening forecasts follows several months of underperformance relative to expectations, attributed to increased economic uncertainty and employer caution.

A further decline would suggest ongoing softening in labor demand and may influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy, especially alongside other labor market data. Analysts anticipate that the upcoming JOLTS release will affirm a softening labor market, with job openings continuing to edge down from earlier 2025 highs.

Thursday, September 4 – US ISM Services PMI

Economists anticipate the ISM Services PMI will print at 50.5, suggesting very slight growth after near-stagnation in July. July’s reading was 50.1, which fell short of forecasts and indicated the weakest services activity in over a year. Recent weakness in the services PMI has been attributed to slower business activity, declining new orders, and ongoing tariff-related impacts, offset slightly by persistent price pressures. A reading above 50 signals expansion, but the trend reflects continuing fragility in the services side of the US economy.

Friday, September 5 – US Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Hourly Earnings

Economists are projecting a modest gain in payrolls, with estimates hovering around 74k, a slight improvement over July’s meager 73k but still far below the 2024 monthly average. The unemployment rate is expected to edge up, likely landing in the 4.3% area, continuing a gradual softening from July’s 4.2%.

Average hourly earnings are forecast to remain unchanged at 0.3% month-over-month, maintaining the recent pace of wage growth. This wage resilience points to underlying strength in consumer income, even as job creation decelerates.

Impact on September FOMC Meeting

• • If non-farm payrolls undershoot expectations and unemployment ticks higher, markets are likely to read it as a sign of a cooling labor market. Such a report would strengthen the case for the Fed to cut rates at this month’s FOMC meeting.
• • On the flip side, if payrolls surprise to the upside and unemployment holds steady or dips, investors will scale back rate-cut bets.

Market Outlook

Natural Gas

A false breakdown, as marked on the chart, was followed by five consecutive daily positive closes, signaling a strong recovery. This rebound coincides closely with the yearly 2024 open, indicating the market has effectively bounced off the key trend line support.

The $2.60 level remains a critical support zone for the bulls to defend, while on the upside, $3.35 is acting as robust resistance guarded by bears. A decisive breach beyond either of these levels is likely to trigger increased volatility.

Nasdaq

A classic head and shoulders pattern is visible on the 4-hour chart. The confirmation of this setup was completed last week with the formation of the right shoulder.

The pattern will become active once the neckline at $23,000 is decisively breached to the downside. Conversely, the pattern will be invalidated if the price forms a new high above the right shoulder, signaling a potential continuation of the uptrend rather than a reversal.

Overall, markets enter the week on edge, with traders watching closely for confirmation of broader economic trends. The upcoming data could set the tone for September and shape expectations heading into the Federal Reserve meeting.

Disclaimer:

The information in this article is for general information only and does not represent financial or investment advice. Markets are unpredictable, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions, please do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor. We are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by reliance on this content.