Monday, May 12

There are no major economic releases to kick off the week. However, investor focus will be firmly on the U.S.–China trade deal concluded over the weekend. Markets will be looking closely for detailed terms and implications.

Tuesday, May 13 – US CPI

Headline CPI is projected to increase by 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY. While April’s report may not fully reflect the inflationary impact of recent tariffs, economists anticipate that these pressures will become more evident in the months ahead.

• Positive CPI Surprise: Could pressure equities and bolster the U.S. dollar, as higher inflation may lead to tighter monetary policy.
• Negative CPI Surprise: Should support equities and weaken the dollar, reinforcing expectations of rate cuts.

Wednesday, May 14 – Crude Oil Inventories

Analysts expect a drawdown of approximately 2.032 million barrels. However, with global production outpacing demand, oversupply concerns may continue to weigh on prices.

The EIA has revised its global demand forecast down by 500,000 barrels/day, citing weakening consumption in refined products.

Thursday, May 15 – US PPI

PPI is expected to rise 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY, indicating potential stabilization after March’s -0.4% drop.

• Positive PPI Surprise: May pressure equities and strengthen the dollar by delaying rate cut expectations.
• Negative PPI Surprise: Could support equities and weaken the dollar by reinforcing a dovish Fed stance.

Friday, May 16 – Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations

Consumer sentiment is expected to tick up to 53.1 from 52.2. However, year-ahead inflation expectations have surged to 6.5%, the highest since 1981.

This could weigh on spending and complicate the Fed’s policy outlook if inflation remains persistently elevated in consumer expectations.

Technical Outlook

Dollar Index (DXY):
Support holds near $99. Resistance remains around $103. A breakout above $103 could trigger further bullish continuation.

Crude Oil (WTI):
A double bottom is forming around $58. If price closes above the $65 resistance level, this may confirm a bullish reversal and open further upside potential.

Equities:
High volatility expected. Price action will likely react sharply to inflation metrics and trade updates. Traditional indicators may remain secondary to macro catalysts this week.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.