• US Trade Balance: -$54.5B (narrower than -$66.6B expected)
• US Jobless Claims: 213K (slightly below 215K expected)
• US Crude Oil Inventories: +3.8M barrels (well above +1.05M forecast)
• US Existing Home Sales: 4.09M (beat 3.89M expected)
• US Core PCE Price Index MoM: 0.4% (in line with 0.4% forecast; prior 0.4%)
• China Trade Surplus: $213.6B (far exceeded $179.6B forecast)
• China CPI: +1.3% (ahead of +0.8% expected)
• UK Monthly GDP: 0.0% (missed 0.2% expected)

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the weaker yen could amplify inflation pressures, particularly as global energy prices rise.

Ueda noted that exchange rate movements now play a larger role in shaping inflation than in the past, meaning the central bank will need to monitor currency swings closely when assessing policy decisions.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that disruptions in the Middle East are already affecting global oil supply. Roughly 17% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, making any disruption there highly significant for energy markets.

Aramco is ramping up capacity on its East-West pipeline to redirect shipments, but Nasser said global inventories are already near five-year lows. He warned that prolonged disruption could have serious consequences for the oil market and the global economy.

• Australia: Will release 762 million liters of fuel from its reserves after easing stockholding rules to offset supply disruptions.
• United States: Plans to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of a broader coordinated response.
• International Energy Agency (IEA): Member countries are collectively preparing to release around 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves.
• US: Issued a temporary license allowing the sale of Russian oil cargoes, aimed at easing supply pressures in global markets.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Barclays said a sustained rise in oil prices could push US inflation closer to 3%.

Goldman estimates that a 10% increase in oil prices could add roughly 0.28 percentage points to headline inflation. While the impact on core inflation may remain limited initially, prolonged energy price increases could complicate expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The European Commission warned that escalating tensions in the Middle East could push eurozone inflation back above 3% in 2026 if energy prices remain elevated.

Officials said Brent crude near $100 per barrel and higher natural gas prices could significantly raise energy costs across the region. This would likely slow economic growth while complicating the European Central Bank’s policy outlook.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said the eurozone is not entering a stagflationary period, despite global uncertainty.

She noted that the region is better positioned to absorb shocks compared with the energy crisis in 2022, though policymakers remain cautious. Lagarde reiterated that the ECB will act if needed to ensure inflation returns to its 2% target, while avoiding firm guidance on the next rate move.

The US, EU and Japan are working on a coordinated trade framework for critical minerals aimed at reducing reliance on China in strategic supply chains.

The proposed agreement may include price floors, tariffs, and joint stockpiling measures to stabilize supply and counter Chinese market influence. Negotiations are expected to formally begin in April, with cooperation also extending to research and infrastructure investment.

China has reportedly banned refined fuel exports for March, according to Reuters. The decision is aimed at protecting domestic energy supply as tensions in the Middle East threaten global oil flows.

The order, issued by China’s National Development and Reform Commission, covers shipments of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel.

• Japanese yen weakened past 159.45 per dollar, the lowest level since July 2024.
• Brent crude settled above $100, the highest since August 2022.
• EURUSD fell to November 2025 lows, trading below 1.1480.
• Gold is on track for back-to-back negative weekly close.

Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East continues to dominate sentiment. Oil prices surged then pulled back amid reserve release talks, while inflation data and central bank comments remain in focus. Markets face heightened volatility as supply risks, currency moves, and policy uncertainty collide.