Weekly Outlook: 13–17 April 2026 – US PPI, Eurozone CPI & FOMC Speeches in Focus Amid US-Iran

Global markets enter the week with geopolitics still dominating sentiment after a tense weekend that ended in another stalemate between US and Iranian representatives in Islamabad. Both sides appear firmly anchored to their positions, while Washington’s tone has shifted following recent statements in their official pages. With the Strait of Hormuz back in focus, even a small headline could quickly shake markets, lifting oil prices, pressuring risk sentiment, and reshaping inflation expectations.

The macro calendar adds another layer of pressure. US PPI and a fresh round of European inflation data will offer a clearer read on whether the geopolitical shock is starting to feed through into broader price pressures. Markets are likely to stay highly sensitive to any headline that shifts the balance between growth concerns and inflation risk.

Consensus: 4.07M vs 4.09M prior

The housing market remains an important gauge of how higher interest rates are affecting consumer activity. A slight moderation is expected, and while the data may not move markets dramatically on its own, it will still offer another read on the resilience of US demand. A weaker-than-expected print would reinforce the view that financing conditions are continuing to weigh on activity.

Consensus: 0.5% m/m, 0.5% m/m core

This is likely one of the most important releases of the week. So far, markets have not seen a meaningful pickup in either headline or core inflation, but any upside surprise here could quickly shift expectations around the next CPI and PCE prints. If producer prices accelerate, the spillover effect on consumer inflation will become a much bigger concern for the Fed and for market pricing.

A strong reading would also add another layer to the current geopolitical inflation story, especially if energy-related pressures continue to build. In that scenario, the market could begin to price in fewer rate cuts and a more cautious policy path from the Federal Reserve.

Consensus: 0.1% vs -1.5% prior

This release will help clarify whether the Eurozone’s industrial sector is beginning to stabilize after a weak prior reading. A modest recovery is expected, but the underlying picture remains fragile given subdued external demand and lingering cost pressures. Any disappointment would reinforce concerns that the region’s growth outlook is still vulnerable.

Chinese GDP Consensus: 4.8% vs 4.5%

China remains a key pillar for global demand. A stronger print would suggest resilience despite global uncertainty, supporting commodities and risk sentiment. However, if growth underwhelms, it adds another layer of concern — weaker demand and higher energy prices is not a comfortable mix for global markets.

Eurozone CPI Consensus: 2.5% vs 2.5% prior

This will be one of the most closely watched releases for the ECB. Policymakers have already been vocal about the risk that the conflict could feed back into Eurozone inflation, and this debate now feels uncomfortably familiar to the 2022 period when energy shocks dominated the policy outlook. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it will strengthen the case for the ECB to remain cautious about easing too quickly.

The market will focus not just on the headline, but also on whether energy and core components are starting to firm again. A persistent rise would raise the risk that external shocks are once again becoming an internal inflation problem for Europe.

Speakers: Daly, Barkin, and Waller

Friday’s comments from FOMC members could offer useful clues on how policymakers are interpreting the latest labor market and inflation developments. Traders will be listening to any shift in tone around the balance between price stability and growth risks. Even if no single speech changes the broader policy outlook, a coordinated hawkish or cautious message could still influence rate expectations into the following week.