GOLD CLIMBS TO LATE-MAY HIGH AS WEAKER USD SUPPORTS MOVE TOWARD $4,600
Gold climbed to its highest level since late May during Friday’s European session, supported by a broadly weaker US Dollar. XAU/USD also moved above its 200-day Simple Moving Average at $4,514.16, bringing the $4,529 area into focus as a key near-term technical reference.
The Dollar remains near a three-month low as softer US inflation data reduced expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate increase. However, Fed tightening expectations have not disappeared. According to the CME FedWatch Tool cited in the article, markets assign around a 68% probability of at least one rate increase by year-end. This reflects market pricing rather than a confirmed Fed decision.
Higher oil prices may also influence inflation expectations and US Treasury yields. Elevated yields could provide some support to the Dollar and potentially moderate Gold’s upward momentum.
Technically, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,529.03 remains an important near-term level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence remains positive, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 67.70, close to overbought territory and indicating firm but increasingly extended momentum.
Above $4,529, the next references are the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $4,687 and the cycle high near $4,889. On the downside, key levels include the 200-day average at $4,514.16, followed by $4,417, $4,306.50, $4,168 and $3,946.
Market attention remains focused on the $4,514–$4,529 technical area, Fed rate expectations, US Treasury yields and Friday’s preliminary US Purchasing Managers Index data, which may provide further context for XAU/USD’s near-term direction.
⚠️ Risk warning: Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose all of your invested capital. Please ensure you fully understand the risks before trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
