Previous, Forecast and Actual Figures on an Economic Calendar
Learn what the previous, forecast and actual figures mean on an economic calendar, and why the gap between them often matters most.
- 7 min read
- For beginners
- Educational
- Ders 3 / 6
- 1How to Read an Economic Calendar: A Complete Beginner's Guide
- 2Importance Ratings on an Economic Calendar
- 3Previous, Forecast and Actual Figures on an Economic Calendar
- 4Central Bank Meetings on the Economic Calendar
- 5Inflation, Employment and GDP Data on the Economic Calendar
- 6How to Plan Around High-Impact Economic Events
Alongside each event on an economic calendar, you'll typically see three figures: previous, forecast, and actual. Understanding what each of these represents — and how they relate to one another — is key to interpreting the calendar correctly.
This guide breaks down each figure individually and explains why the relationship between them is often more informative than any single number on its own.
What Is the "Previous" Figure?
The previous figure shows the result from the last time this particular data was released — for example, last month's inflation rate or last quarter's GDP growth. This provides a reference point for comparing the newest data against recent history.
What Is the "Forecast" Figure?
The forecast figure represents the consensus expectation among economists and analysts for what the upcoming data release will show. This is often compiled from surveys of multiple institutions and is intended to reflect the market's general expectation ahead of the actual release.
What Is the "Actual" Figure?
The actual figure is the real, reported result once the data is officially released. This appears on the calendar at the scheduled release time, replacing the forecast with the confirmed outcome.
Why the Gap Between Figures Often Matters Most
Markets often react not simply to whether a figure is "good" or "bad" in isolation, but to how it compares with what was expected. A result that closely matches the forecast may generate a relatively muted reaction, since the market had already priced in that outcome. A result that significantly beats or misses the forecast — a "surprise" — is often what drives sharper price movement, since it requires participants to adjust their expectations.
This is why simply looking at whether a number "went up" or "went down" compared to the previous reading is not always enough; comparing the actual figure to the forecast tends to provide a more complete picture of how the market might interpret the release.
A Practical Example
Suppose a country's unemployment rate was 4.0% last month (previous), and analysts expect it to remain at 4.0% (forecast). If the actual figure comes in at 4.5% — notably higher than expected — this surprise relative to the forecast is often what generates a stronger market reaction, more so than the modest month-over-month change from the previous figure alone.
Summary
Previous, forecast and actual figures each provide a different piece of context for an economic release: the last result, the consensus expectation, and the confirmed outcome. The gap between the forecast and actual figures is often what drives market reaction, more so than the raw numbers viewed in isolation.
Frequently Asked Questions
All three provide useful context, but the comparison between forecast and actual is often considered the most relevant for understanding potential market reaction.
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