USD/JPY SLIPS TO 158.25 AS JAPAN PPI COOLS AND FED HIKE BETS LINGER
USD/JPY slips to around 158.25 in early Asian trading, while the Japanese Yen strengthens despite softer Japanese PPI inflation. Japan’s wholesale prices rose 6.8% year-on-year in September, slowing from the previous month while still indicating inflationary pressure.
The softer data raises the chance that the BoJ stands pat in October and waits until December to raise rates again.
On the US side, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Federal Reserve should move relatively quickly toward a restrictive policy stance to control inflation.
According to CME FedWatch, markets currently price more than an 80.6% probability of rates remaining unchanged at the next Fed meeting, while the probability of a rate increase in December is nearly 84.7%. US CPI is due Wednesday, followed by PPI and Retail Sales on Thursday, providing further signals for the Fed’s policy path.
From a technical perspective, USD/JPY remains below the 100-day SMA at 159.50. Initial resistance is at the 20-day Bollinger upper band near 159.10, followed by 159.50. Support is located at the 20-day Bollinger middle band at 157.65, followed by 156.25.
UOB maintains a short-term range-trading view, with 157.00–158.70 expected to contain price movements for now.
For market participants, the key factors remain USD/JPY near 158.25, Japan’s 6.8% PPI inflation, BoJ policy expectations, Fed rate expectations, Wednesday’s US CPI, Thursday’s PPI and Retail Sales, the 159.10–159.50 resistance zone and 157.65–156.25 support area, which may provide further context for the pair’s near-term direction.
⚠️ Risk warning: Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk. You may lose all of your invested capital.
