THE 6.5% QUESTION: USD/CAD AWAITS CANADA’S JOBS DATA
Canada’s September Labour Force Survey is expected to show a modest recovery in employment after August’s 41.7K decline. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to rise to 6.5% from 6.4%, while consensus expectations point to around 7K jobs added.
Forecasts vary among analysts. RBC expects employment to increase by 5K with unemployment holding at 6.4%, while CIBC also expects 5K job growth but sees unemployment rising to 6.5%.
The report may influence expectations for the Bank of Canada (BoC) ahead of its October 28 meeting. The central bank is expected to remain cautious at that meeting, balancing signs of economic weakness against persistent inflationary pressures.
Canada’s headline CPI remained at 3.0% year-on-year in August, above the BoC’s 2% target amid elevated energy prices. Average Hourly Wages rose 2.0% year-on-year in August, slowing from 3.0% in July and 3.7% in June.
Investors will also monitor full-time employment, wage growth and the participation rate for further signals on the Canadian labour market.
From a technical perspective, USD/CAD maintains a constructive structure above the 100-period SMA at 1.4151 and 200-period SMA at 1.4003. Initial resistance is at 1.4232, followed by 1.4270 and 1.4293. Support is located at 1.4200, followed by 1.4175 and 1.4151.
For market participants, the key factors remain Canada’s 6.5% unemployment forecast, September employment data, USD/CAD near 1.4200, BoC policy expectations, the 1.4232–1.4293 resistance zone and the 1.4151–1.4200 support area, which may provide further context for the pair’s near-term direction.
⚠️ Risk warning: Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk. You may lose all of your invested capital.
