AUD/USD HOLDS ABOVE 0.7100 AS SOFTER US DOLLAR MEETS WEAKER AUSTRALIAN LABOR DATA
AUD/USD advanced to around 0.7135 during Friday’s Asian session, remaining above the 0.7100 level as the US Dollar weakened. The supplied article links the Dollar’s softness partly to continued concerns surrounding the US fiscal outlook and market assessment of the Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback programme.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Treasury could increase bond buybacks beyond $4 billion, after previously announcing plans to double purchases of longer-dated securities. He also stressed that the buyback decision was not directly linked to interest-rate policy.
On the Australian side, weaker labor-market data may limit the pair’s upside. Employment unexpectedly fell by 15,800 jobs in July, compared with market expectations for a 15,000 increase, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.5% from 4.4%.
Ray White Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee said the rise in unemployment modestly strengthens the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold rates. BNY also highlighted signs of further cooling in Australia’s labor market. These remain institutional assessments rather than confirmed future RBA decisions.
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD remains above its 100-day Simple Moving Average at 0.7070 and the middle Bollinger Band near 0.7055. The pair is approaching the upper Bollinger Band around 0.7150, which represents the nearest upper technical reference.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 65.95, just below overbought territory, suggesting positive momentum remains present but is becoming increasingly extended. On the downside, 0.7070 is the first technical reference, followed by 0.7055, while the lower Bollinger Band near 0.6958 represents a broader lower level.
For market participants, the main near-term references are the 0.7070–0.7150 technical area, Australian labor-market conditions, expectations surrounding the RBA policy path and developments affecting the US Dollar. The preliminary US Purchasing Managers Index data identified in the supplied article also remains a scheduled market event to monitor.
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