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Daily Market Update

USD/CAD STEADIES NEAR 1.3930 AFTER TWO-MONTH LOW AS US CPI TAKES CENTER STAGE

USD/CAD stabilizes near 1.3930 after hitting a two-month low, as markets await US CPI while Fed expectations, crude oil prices and technical levels shape the outlook.

Daily Market Update August 12, 2026

USD/CAD STEADIES NEAR 1.3930 AFTER TWO-MONTH LOW AS US CPI TAKES CENTER STAGE

USD/CAD STEADIES NEAR 1.3930 AFTER TWO-MONTH LOW AS US CPI TAKES CENTER STAGE

USD/CAD traded around 1.3930 during Wednesday’s Asian session, stabilizing after falling to 1.3915, its lowest level since June 10, during the recent three-session decline.

Market attention now turns to the latest US inflation figures. The Consumer Price Index is due Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index on Thursday. These releases may influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path and, in turn, near-term movements in the US Dollar and USD/CAD.

According to CME FedWatch data cited in the supplied commentary, markets currently price a greater than 75% probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate increase by the end of the year. This keeps US interest-rate expectations an important factor for Dollar demand ahead of the inflation releases.

At the same time, stronger crude oil prices remain relevant for the Canadian Dollar. Oil reached a one-and-a-half-week high on Tuesday, providing support to the commodity-linked Canadian currency and helping limit the recent recovery in USD/CAD.

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD is trading just above its 100-day SMA at 1.3919, with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3898 providing another nearby reference. On the upper side, the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3980 is the nearest resistance reference, followed by 1.4081 and the broader cycle high near 1.4244.

If the pair moves below the 1.3919–1.3898 area, the next lower technical references identified in the supplied analysis are the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3817, followed by 1.3701 and 1.3553.

Market participants will continue to monitor US inflation, Federal Reserve rate expectations and crude oil prices, with the 1.3898–1.3980 area providing important near-term technical references for USD/CAD.

⚠️ Risk warning: Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose all of your invested capital. Please ensure you fully understand the risks before trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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EUROZONE PMI FALLS TO 51.9 AS EUR/GBP HITS FRESH LOWS

Daily Market Update

EUROZONE PMI FALLS TO 51.9 AS EUR/GBP HITS FRESH LOWS

The Eurozone’s preliminary composite PMI fell to 51.9 in October from 53.1 in September, missing expectations of 52.7 as services and manufacturing activity slowed. Rising energy costs and concerns over France’s fiscal outlook added pressure on the Euro. Meanwhile, the UK composite PMI rose to 53.1, supporting Sterling and contributing to EUR/GBP reaching an 18-month low.

GOLD FALLS BELOW $4,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JULY AS YIELDS AND USD WEIGH

Daily Market Update

GOLD FALLS BELOW $4,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JULY AS YIELDS AND USD WEIGH

Gold falls below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since July as elevated US Treasury yields, a firm Dollar and expectations of further Fed tightening weigh on prices. Equity market sell-offs have also triggered bullion selling, while central bank demand and ETF inflows continue to support gold's longer-term outlook. Markets now focus on the Fed's October 28 decision for clues on the metal's next move.

SNB SAYS INCREASED WILLINGNESS TO INTERVENE NO LONGER NECESSARY

Daily Market Update

SNB SAYS INCREASED WILLINGNESS TO INTERVENE NO LONGER NECESSARY

The Swiss National Bank maintains its policy rate at 0% and says a higher willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets is no longer necessary. The Swiss Franc depreciated around 3% on a trade-weighted basis between June and September, easing overall monetary conditions. With headline inflation at 0.8% and the 2026 GDP growth forecast upgraded to 1.5%–2.0%, the SNB expects price stability to remain intact over its forecast horizon.

FRENCH YIELDS TOP 5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2002 AS MOODY’S REVIEW LOOMS

Daily Market Update

FRENCH YIELDS TOP 5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2002 AS MOODY’S REVIEW LOOMS

EUR/USD trades just below 1.1250 as French 10-year government bond yields exceed 5% for the first time since 2002, adding pressure on the Euro ahead of Moody’s credit rating review. Markets are monitoring Eurozone and US PMI data, ECB and Fed rate expectations, and key technical levels, with resistance at 1.1250 and support at 1.1200, 1.1150 and 1.1100.

UK CPI HITS 3.5%: CORE AND SERVICE INFLATION ALSO ACCELERATE

Daily Market Update

UK CPI HITS 3.5%: CORE AND SERVICE INFLATION ALSO ACCELERATE

UK inflation accelerated to 3.5% in September, exceeding the 3.4% forecast. Core CPI rose to 2.8%, while services inflation increased to 3.7%, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England may maintain a restrictive policy stance. Markets are monitoring persistent inflation pressures and the outlook for further rate tightening.

DXY GIVES BACK EARLY GAINS AS AI RISKS KEEP USD UNDER PRESSURE

Daily Market Update

DXY GIVES BACK EARLY GAINS AS AI RISKS KEEP USD UNDER PRESSURE

The US Dollar Index trades near 101.80 after retreating from an intraday high of 102.01, as concerns over the AI investment cycle weigh on the Dollar. Markets are monitoring French 10-year bond yields near 4.85%, Fed rate expectations and technical support at 101.65, with the RSI at 57 indicating that bullish momentum remains above neutral.

GBP/USD REBOUNDS FROM YTD LOW TO FRESH MONTHLY HIGH

Daily Market Update

GBP/USD REBOUNDS FROM YTD LOW TO FRESH MONTHLY HIGH

GBP/USD climbs to a fresh monthly high near 1.3325 after recovering from its 1.3135 year-to-date low. Weaker US Treasury yields, expectations for the Fed to hold rates and stronger UK GDP data support the pair. Traders are monitoring resistance at 1.3343, 1.3406 and 1.3468, with initial support near 1.3265.

WARSH WON’T PRE-JUDGE OCTOBER OR DECEMBER AS DXY SLIPS TO 101.82

Daily Market Update

WARSH WON’T PRE-JUDGE OCTOBER OR DECEMBER AS DXY SLIPS TO 101.82

The US Dollar Index slips to 101.82 as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh leaves the October and December policy decisions open. Markets will monitor inflation, employment, economic output and further Fed communication for clues on the US Dollar’s near-term direction.

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