GOLD RECOVERS ABOVE $4,350 AS FOMC MINUTES TAKE CENTER STAGE
Gold recovered from its weekly low during Wednesday’s session and moved back above $4,350, supported in part by a softer US Dollar. Market attention is now focused on the upcoming FOMC Minutes for further information on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
According to CME FedWatch data cited in the supplied commentary, markets currently assign around a 68% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase by year-end. This reflects market-implied expectations rather than a confirmed Federal Reserve decision.
Higher energy prices and elevated long-term US Treasury yields also remain relevant to both the Dollar and Gold. ING analysts highlighted these factors as potential sources of near-term support for the US Dollar, while noting that changes in energy prices and bond yields could influence expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy. This remains an institutional assessment rather than a confirmed market outcome.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $4,406 and the 200-day Simple Moving Average near $4,509. The next broader upper reference identified in the supplied analysis is the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $4,519.36.
Momentum indicators remain mixed. The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 59.24, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains above zero, indicating positive but moderated momentum.
On the lower side, $4,292 represents the nearest technical reference, followed by $4,152 and the broader structural level around $3,925.
Market participants will continue to monitor the FOMC Minutes, Federal Reserve expectations, US Treasury yields and the $4,292–$4,406 technical area, which remain important near-term references for XAU/USD.
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