GOLD HITS TWO-MONTH HIGH ABOVE $4,400 AS FED BETS SHIFT
Gold extended its advance for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, climbing above $4,400 during Asian trading and reaching its highest level since June 5.
The move followed weaker US employment data released last Friday, which reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. Lower expectations for higher interest rates have provided support for non-yielding assets such as Gold.
However, markets continue to price the possibility of at least one Federal Reserve rate increase in 2026. US Treasury yields and movements in the US Dollar therefore remain important factors for XAU/USD as investors reassess the outlook for monetary policy.
Attention now turns to US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index due Wednesday and the Producer Price Index due Thursday. These releases may influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy path and, in turn, short-term movements in the US Dollar and Gold.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD has moved above the 100-day SMA at $4,389 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement near $4,406. The next upper technical references identified in the supplied analysis are the 200-day SMA at $4,498, the 61.8% retracement at $4,515, and the broader 78.6% level near $4,669.
On the lower side, $4,406 and $4,389 remain the nearest technical references. Additional levels are located near the 38.2% retracement at $4,297 and the 23.6% retracement at $4,162, while the broader cycle low is identified around $3,945.
Market participants will continue to monitor US inflation and Federal Reserve expectations, with the $4,389–$4,515 area providing important near-term technical references for XAU/USD.
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