BANK OF ENGLAND RATE DECISION TODAY: ECONOMISTS EXPECT A HIKE TO 4.0%

The Bank of England is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision at 12:00 GMT on Thursday, November 5, with economists surveyed by Reuters expecting a 25-basis-point increase from 3.75% to 4.0%. The anticipated 7–2 vote would mark the first rate hike since August 2023. UK consumer inflation reached 3.5% year-on-year in September, exceeding the BoE’s 3.0% forecast and remaining above its 2% target. Meanwhile, businesses expect wage settlements of around 3.5% next year, with limited signs of second-round wage pressures so far. Financial markets have priced in at least three further quarter-point increases in 2027, while PIMCO economist Peder Beck-Friis expects one additional hike in February, followed by an extended period of unchanged rates.

5 Nov 20261 min read

Daily Market Update November 5, 2026

BANK OF ENGLAND RATE DECISION TODAY: ECONOMISTS EXPECT A HIKE TO 4.0%

The Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision at 12:00 GMT on Thursday, November 5. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect a 25-basis-point increase in the Bank Rate, from 3.75% to 4.0%, with a projected 7–2 vote in favour. This would be the first rate increase since August 2023. Governor Andrew Bailey and some of his deputies are scheduled to hold a press conference at 12:30 GMT.

The expected decision follows the Monetary Policy Committee’s September meeting, when policymakers voted 6–3 to keep rates unchanged. Reuters reports that external members Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra are seen as the most likely to vote to hold rates.

UK consumer prices rose 3.5% year-on-year in September, half a percentage point above the BoE’s 3.0% July forecast and 1.5 percentage points above its 2% inflation target. In September, the BoE warned that inflation would rise above 4% early next year, according to Reuters.

Reuters reported there were few signs of second-round wage effects so far, with businesses expecting wage settlements of around 3.5% next year, similar to 2026.

According to Reuters, financial markets have priced at least three additional quarter-point rate increases in 2027, on top of the expected November move. However, PIMCO economist Peder Beck-Friis expects only one further increase in February, followed by an extended period of unchanged rates. Economists surveyed by Reuters in October were also divided on whether further increases would follow the November decision.

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