US OCTOBER CPI RISES 0.4% VS 0.3% EXPECTED; DECEMBER 25-BASIS-POINT HIKE ODDS AT 91%

US consumer prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month in October, exceeding economists’ expectations of 0.3%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.3%. The shelter index also increased by 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of the monthly rise in the all-items index. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish an annual inflation comparison for October 2026 because it did not collect CPI data in October 2025 during the government shutdown. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated support for a December rate increase and said policymakers could consider a larger 50-basis-point move if inflationary pressures worsened. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said at least two more quarter-point increases were needed to bring inflation under control. According to CME FedWatch data cited by Investing.com, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December rose to 91%, up from 84% on Monday, while the probability of a 50-basis-point increase reached 10%. Markets are now looking ahead to the US October Producer Price Index (PPI), scheduled for release on Friday, November 13, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (13:30 GMT).

11 Nov 20261 min read

Daily Market Update November 11, 2026

US OCTOBER CPI RISES 0.4% VS 0.3% EXPECTED; DECEMBER 25-BASIS-POINT HIKE ODDS AT 91%

Above the Forecast

US consumer prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in October, exceeding economists’ expectations of 0.3% by 0.1 percentage point, according to Investing.com. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3%, according to HousingWire.

Inside the Report

HousingWire reported that the shelter index rose 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of the monthly increase in the all-items index. Owners’ equivalent rent, a component of shelter, also increased 0.3%.

No Annual Comparison

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not collect CPI data in October 2025 during the government shutdown. The BLS will not publish a year-on-year inflation estimate for October 2026, according to HousingWire.

What Fed Officials Said

According to Investing.com, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would support a rate increase in December even if inflation cooled. He also argued that policymakers should consider a larger 50-basis-point increase if price pressures worsened.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the central bank needed at least two more quarter-point rate increases to bring inflation under control.

What the Market Is Pricing

CME FedWatch data cited by Investing.com showed that the probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the December meeting rose to 91% from 84% on Monday, a change of 7 percentage points. The probability of a 50-basis-point increase also rose to 10%.

What’s Next

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for October is scheduled for release on Friday, November 13, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (13:30 GMT), according to the BLS release schedule.

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