GOLD NEARS $4,400 AS SOFTER US DATA RESHAPES FED RATE EXPECTATIONS
Gold traded around $4,395 during Monday’s early Asian session, remaining close to the psychological $4,400 level as recent US economic data prompted markets to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
US Retail Sales declined 0.6% month-on-month in July, compared with expectations for a 0.1% increase, following a 0.2% rise in June. On an annual basis, Retail Sales increased 5.0%, compared with a revised 6.8% previously.
The report followed softer US inflation readings and contributed to lower expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate increase. According to CME FedWatch data cited in the supplied commentary, markets currently assign a 33.1% probability of a September rate increase. This represents market-implied pricing rather than a confirmed Federal Reserve decision.
Commerzbank analysts also noted that renewed ETF buying interest has become another factor relevant to the Gold market. The bank expects the Federal Reserve not to raise rates, although this remains an institutional forecast rather than a confirmed policy outcome.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD is trading just above its 100-day Simple Moving Average at $4,385.85. The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 64.09, indicating relatively firm momentum while remaining below commonly referenced overbought territory.
The upper Bollinger Band near $4,480 provides the closest upper technical reference identified in the supplied analysis. On the lower side, the 100-day SMA at $4,385.85 remains the nearest reference, followed by the Bollinger middle band near $4,195. A broader lower technical reference is located near $3,905.
Market participants will continue to monitor Federal Reserve expectations, incoming US economic data and ETF demand, with the $4,385–$4,480 area providing important near-term technical references for XAU/USD.
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