DXY HOLDS ABOVE 102.00 AS SAFE-HAVEN FLOWS OFFSET WEAK JOBS DATA
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 102.20, holding above the 102.00 level despite a weaker-than-expected US employment report. September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by just 29,000, well below the 90,000 consensus, while the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.2%.
The weak jobs data reduced expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool cited in the source, markets now price an 82.3% probability of rates remaining unchanged in October, compared with 35.8% one week earlier.
However, higher US Treasury yields and continued safe-haven demand have helped support the Dollar. Recent comments from Fed official Logan also reinforced a hawkish policy signal, with the source noting expectations for at least 50 basis points of additional rate increases. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index also rose to 136.59, remaining firmly above the neutral 100 level.
Market attention now turns to the US ISM Services PMI. The index is expected to fall to 54.0 in September, while employment and prices-paid components will be closely watched for further signals on economic activity and cost pressures.
From a technical perspective, DXY maintains a bullish near-term structure but remains overbought, with the RSI (14) at 76.34. Immediate resistance is near the Bollinger upper band at 102.60. On the downside, initial support is around the Bollinger middle band at 100.50, followed by the 100-day SMA at 100.15.
For market participants, the key factors remain DXY near 102.20, Treasury yields, October Fed rate expectations, Logan’s hawkish signals, ISM Services PMI, the 102.60 resistance level and the 100.15–100.50 support area, which may provide further context for the near-term direction of the US Dollar.
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