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Daily Market Update
The US Dollar is under close watch as investors await the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. Softer-than-expected US economic data, changing rate expectations and declining Treasury yields have shifted market sentiment, while traders continue to monitor inflation guidance and FOMC commentary for potential volatility across the US Dollar and major currency pairs.
The US Dollar remains in focus ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s rate decision as markets assess recent economic data, Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook.
According to MUFG analyst Lloyd Chan, the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged while continuing to highlight elevated inflation risks. This is MUFG’s institutional assessment rather than a confirmed policy outcome.
Recent US data was softer than expected. Weekly ADP employment increased by 15,000, below the forecast of 16,500, while wholesale inventories remained at 0.3% month-on-month, compared with the 0.4% consensus estimate.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index declined to 90.8 in July from 92.2 in June, missing expectations of 92.4. US two-year and ten-year Treasury yields also fell by approximately four basis points following the data.
Markets were pricing around a 34% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the July meeting, down from approximately 38% several days earlier. Changes in these expectations may influence Treasury yields and broader US Dollar movements.
MUFG noted that continued emphasis on inflation risks and a restrictive policy stance could provide support to US yields and the Dollar. Its analysis also identified the Singapore Dollar, South Korean Won and Malaysian Ringgit as the Asian currencies most closely correlated with DXY movements over the past 30 weeks.
Market participants will continue to monitor the FOMC statement, inflation commentary, Treasury yields and incoming US data, which may contribute to increased volatility across the US Dollar and related currency pairs.
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Daily Market Update
The Eurozone’s preliminary composite PMI fell to 51.9 in October from 53.1 in September, missing expectations of 52.7 as services and manufacturing activity slowed. Rising energy costs and concerns over France’s fiscal outlook added pressure on the Euro. Meanwhile, the UK composite PMI rose to 53.1, supporting Sterling and contributing to EUR/GBP reaching an 18-month low.
Daily Market Update
Gold falls below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since July as elevated US Treasury yields, a firm Dollar and expectations of further Fed tightening weigh on prices. Equity market sell-offs have also triggered bullion selling, while central bank demand and ETF inflows continue to support gold's longer-term outlook. Markets now focus on the Fed's October 28 decision for clues on the metal's next move.
Daily Market Update
The Swiss National Bank maintains its policy rate at 0% and says a higher willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets is no longer necessary. The Swiss Franc depreciated around 3% on a trade-weighted basis between June and September, easing overall monetary conditions. With headline inflation at 0.8% and the 2026 GDP growth forecast upgraded to 1.5%–2.0%, the SNB expects price stability to remain intact over its forecast horizon.
Daily Market Update
EUR/USD trades just below 1.1250 as French 10-year government bond yields exceed 5% for the first time since 2002, adding pressure on the Euro ahead of Moody’s credit rating review. Markets are monitoring Eurozone and US PMI data, ECB and Fed rate expectations, and key technical levels, with resistance at 1.1250 and support at 1.1200, 1.1150 and 1.1100.
Daily Market Update
UK inflation accelerated to 3.5% in September, exceeding the 3.4% forecast. Core CPI rose to 2.8%, while services inflation increased to 3.7%, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England may maintain a restrictive policy stance. Markets are monitoring persistent inflation pressures and the outlook for further rate tightening.
Daily Market Update
The US Dollar Index trades near 101.80 after retreating from an intraday high of 102.01, as concerns over the AI investment cycle weigh on the Dollar. Markets are monitoring French 10-year bond yields near 4.85%, Fed rate expectations and technical support at 101.65, with the RSI at 57 indicating that bullish momentum remains above neutral.
Daily Market Update
GBP/USD climbs to a fresh monthly high near 1.3325 after recovering from its 1.3135 year-to-date low. Weaker US Treasury yields, expectations for the Fed to hold rates and stronger UK GDP data support the pair. Traders are monitoring resistance at 1.3343, 1.3406 and 1.3468, with initial support near 1.3265.
Daily Market Update
The US Dollar Index slips to 101.82 as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh leaves the October and December policy decisions open. Markets will monitor inflation, employment, economic output and further Fed communication for clues on the US Dollar’s near-term direction.
